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Solar power has begun to transform the world’s energy system

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353 points dmazin | 3 comments | 09 Jul 25 12:31 UTC | HN request time: 0s | source
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papaver-somnamb ◴[10 Jul 25 09:52 UTC] No.44519206[source]▶
Tony Seba around 10 years ago predicted (among many other things) that ~2024 the cost of generating a unit of electricity onsite with PV will cost less than merely delivering the same unit of electricity over transmission infrastructure, not even considering the cost of generating that unit.

Nowadays he is diving into what he terms the phase change disruptions where he explores and thinks out the ramifications of these disruptions.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A9McWXZA5wc

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1. jes5199 ◴[10 Jul 25 17:59 UTC] No.44523733[source]▶
I've been following Seba since around 2020, and it's wild how: 1) he continues to be correct 2) people are still very slow to believe him

his predictions have gotten a LOT more dramatic lately, I can't wait to see if he's still nailing it

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2. dalyons ◴[10 Jul 25 19:46 UTC] No.44524734[source]▶
where do you follow him? i just poked around in X & youtube but all his stuff there seems ~a year old.
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3. jes5199 ◴[11 Jul 25 14:04 UTC] No.44532290[source]▶
Tony himself doesn’t post frequently, but his new book “Stellar” is worth checking out. Some of the other RethinkX people, Adam Dorr @adam_dorr and Bradd Libby @bradd_libby are better at posting high-frequency updates using Seba’s models. former-RethinkX researcher Nafeez Ahmed has a blog that is also worth checking out: ageoftransformation.org