←back to thread

353 points dmazin | 5 comments | | HN request time: 0.935s | source
Show context
jillesvangurp ◴[] No.44518778[source]
The article doesn't mention a technology that deserves some attention because it counters the biggest and most obvious deficiency in solar: the sun doesn't always shine.

That technology is cables. Cables allow us to move energy over long distances. And with HVCD cables that can mean across continents, oceans, time zones, and climate regions. The nice things about cables is that they are currently being underutilized. They are designed to have enough capacity so that the grid continues to function at peak demand. Off peak, there is a lot of under utilized cable capacity. An obvious use for that would be transporting power to wherever batteries need to be re-charged from wherever there is excess solar/wind power. And cables can work both ways. So import when there's a shortage, export when there's a surplus.

And that includes the rapidly growing stock of batteries that are just sitting there with an average charge state close to more or less fully charged most of the time. We're talking terawatt hours of power. All you need to get at that is cables.

Long distance cables will start moving non trivial amounts of renewable power around as we start executing on plans to e.g. connect Moroccan solar with the UK, Australian solar with Singapore, east coast US to Europe, etc. There are lots of cable projects stuck in planning pipelines around the world. Cables can compensate for some of the localized variations in energy productions caused by seasonal effects, weather, or day/night cycles.

For the rest, we have nuclear, geothermal, hydro, and a rapidly growing stock of obsolete gas plants that we might still turn on on a rainy day. I think anyone still investing in gas plants will need a reality check: mothballed gas plant aren't going to be very profitable. But we'll keep some around for decades to come anyway.

replies(16): >>44518828 #>>44518835 #>>44518839 #>>44519259 #>>44519263 #>>44519351 #>>44519551 #>>44519755 #>>44519815 #>>44519979 #>>44522132 #>>44523131 #>>44523534 #>>44523901 #>>44528148 #>>44545508 #
kragen ◴[] No.44518839[source]
Plausible alternatives to cables include ships full of synthetic diesel, ships full of iron, ships full of aluminum, or ships full of magnesium. Inside China HVDC cables are indeed carrying solar power across the continent, but the Netherlands have not managed to erect any yet. Cables provide efficient JIT power delivery, but they're vulnerable to precision-guided missiles, which Ukrainians are 3-D printing in their basements by the million, so the aluminum-air battery may return to commercial use.
replies(7): >>44518977 #>>44518993 #>>44519731 #>>44519860 #>>44520236 #>>44521608 #>>44532689 #
1. dgfitz ◴[] No.44519860[source]
As long as we all realize you can’t 3D print precision-guided missiles without, well, the guidance bit.
replies(1): >>44523804 #
2. pfdietz ◴[] No.44523804[source]
The guidance bit should be quite cheap now though, compared to decades ago. Some combination of MEMS backed up with GPS.
replies(2): >>44524336 #>>44524936 #
3. kragen ◴[] No.44524336[source]
And software. The Ukrainian drones largely run on the open-source Ardupilot.

GPS is fairly easy to jam, and despite the purported end of Selective Availability, unencrypted GPS can be turned off entirely without affecting US military GPS. Cruise missiles have been using terrain models for decades now, since well before GPS (a major reason high-resolution DTED used to be classified) which just requires a computationally cheap particle filter and appropriate sensors. We can expect belligerents in upcoming conflicts to maintain strategic stockpiles of the relevant electronics, which are more compact than even cocaine or fentanyl and therefore difficult to blockade.

4. e_y_ ◴[] No.44524936[source]
Also depending on how many corners you're willing to cut. Half the cost but a 1% chance that it turns around and targets a friendly? Some countries would take that trade.
replies(1): >>44525792 #
5. pfdietz ◴[] No.44525792{3}[source]
Like the Apex boats in Operation Dragoon.

https://www.oldsaltblog.com/2024/08/apex-boats-the-unlikely-...

"On the landing beach at Baie de Pampelonne, most Apex boats exploded against the obstacles. Nevertheless, one ran aground, and one sank. A third reversed course and turned back out to sea before exploding near Sub-chaser #1029 and severely damaging it."

One could argue all those Mk 14 torpedoes that malfunctioned and went onto circular paths also counted.