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224 points mshockwave | 1 comments | | HN request time: 0s | source
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somanyphotons ◴[] No.44502235[source]
Suddenly another company that has (old?) fabs and a cpu design team in-house

This could be interesting to see how much they try to loss-lead to get market share in the low-end

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kragen ◴[] No.44502358[source]
GF's fabs aren't that old. They were neck-and-neck with TSMC until 02018, when they could do 12nm: https://web.archive.org/web/20190107061855/https://www.v3.co...
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kasabali ◴[] No.44502554[source]
Imagine canning your 7nm process last minute only few years before the chip shortage.

Must be the most moronic decision ever.

and it's not like 20/20 hindsight either, because every hardware enthusiast knew at the time Intel was having troubles and was worried TSMC (and Samsung at the time) were going to be the only fabs producing leading edge lithographies.

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bee_rider ◴[] No.44502753[source]
I think it would require some work to call it a “moronic decision.” My suspicion is that even if they could see the future and predict that shortage, 7nm by 2020/2021 was not on the table for them.

These nm values are really bullshit anyway, but the tech node that was supposed to be Intel’s 7nm, which ended up being called “Intel 4” (because they branded some 10nm tech as Intel 7), only came out in like 2023. Given they Global Foundries was always behind Intel, suddenly leapfrogging them by 2-3 years would be quite a feat.

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kasabali ◴[] No.44502954[source]
Oh no, it is a moronic decision and everyone thought so even then. It was a competitive process, they said volume production was due in late 2018 and they canned it at the very last minute citing it financially not feasible. You can read details at this news article (https://www.anandtech.com/show/13277/globalfoundries-stops-a...) or thousands of forum discussions regarding the news. No need to even look that far, just skimp the discussions on the forum topic below the news article I linked and it was plain as a day to anyone what would happen.

> These nm values are really bullshit anyway, but the tech node that was supposed to be Intel’s 7nm, which ended up being called “Intel 4” (because they branded some 10nm tech as Intel 7), only came out in like 2023. Given they Global Foundries was always behind Intel, suddenly leapfrogging them by 2-3 years would be quite a feat.

This is a very weak argument. Intel was ahead of everyone, now everyone is ahead of Intel. Remember TSMC's blunder processes like 20nm? How they turned around after that? Or how GloFo has had always mediocre processes but they finally hit the nail in the head with their 14/12nm? Fab business has always had companies leapfrogging each other, it turns out the worst sin is not trying. GloFo's greedy investors chose to bury the business in the ground for their short term profits.

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kragen ◴[] No.44503245[source]
I thought it was a bad decision at the time, but it does seem like a defensible one to me, for three reasons.

First, nobody knew if even TSMC was going to succeed at bringing a 7nm process to market. 02018 was maybe the height of the "Moore's Law is over" belief. There was a lot of debate about whether planar semiconductor scaling had finally reached the limit of practical feasibility, although clearly it was still two orders of magnitude from the single-atom physical limit, which had been reached by Xie's lab in 02002. Like Intel, SMIC didn't reach 7nm until 02023 (with the HiSilicon processor for Huawei's Mate60 cellphone) despite having the full backing of the world's most technically productive country, and when they did, it was a shocking surprise in international relations with the US.

Second, even if GF had brought 7nm to market, there was no guarantee it would be profitable. The most profitable companies in a market are not always the most technically advanced; often the pioneers die with arrows in their backs. If you can make 7nm chips in volume, but the price for them is so high that almost everyone sticks with 12nm processes (maybe from your competitors), you can still lose money on the R&D. Moore's Law as originally stated in "Cramming" was about how the minimum price per transistor kept moving to smaller and smaller transistors, and historically that has been an immensely strong impetus to move to smaller processes, but it's clearly weakened in recent years, with many successful semiconductor products like high-end FPGAs still shipping on very old process nodes. (Leaving aside analog, which is a huge market that doesn't benefit from smaller feature size.)

Third, we don't know what the situation inside GF was, and maybe GF's CEO did. Maybe they'd just lost all their most important talent to TSMC or Samsung, so their 7nm project was doomed. Maybe their management politics were internally dysfunctional in a way that blocked progress on 7nm, even if it hadn't been canceled. There's no guarantee that GF would have been successful at mass production of 7nm chips even in a technical sense, no matter how much money they spent on it.

In the end it seems like GF lost the bet pretty badly. But that doesn't necessarily imply that it was the wrong bet. Just, probably.

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chasil ◴[] No.44503697[source]
As far as I know, Global Foundries ceased efforts at 7nm and lower because they could not afford it.

They had previously signed a contract with IBM to produce silicon at these more advanced nodes that they could not honor, and there was legal action between them.

https://www.anandtech.com/show/13277/globalfoundries-stops-a...

https://newsroom.ibm.com/2025-01-02-GlobalFoundries-and-IBM-...

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1. rusticpenn ◴[] No.44507127{3}[source]
Yeah and IBM had to move their designs in the last minute from GF to Samsung. I have heard that the Samsung process was much better and the tech transfer was easier than expected.