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258 points toomuchtodo | 3 comments | | HN request time: 0.523s | source
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jmyeet ◴[] No.44505485[source]
This will likely come with a one-time significant increase in inflation, at least based on other European countries.

When Germany converted to the Euro, the conversion rate was (IIRC) about ~2 DM to the Euro but from what I recall, a lot of everyday things went from costing 7 DM to 7 euro, effectively doubling in price. IIRC France was similar (ie ~6.5 francs to the Euro but 10 Francs went to 3 euro, etc).

I've tried searching for any studies on this to see if the effect was measured and, if so, whether it held with later countries joining the euro.

I'm a little surprised that the euro has been this stable for this long (going on 30 years). Finland debated leaving. IT's debated if there's even a legal mechanism to leave. We still have the problem that the ECB sets eurozone monetary policy with Germany and Greece being vastly different economies.

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joules77 ◴[] No.44505873[source]
Covid sort of showed everyone how hard it is to survive as a small economy in the modern highly interdependent world.

One small disruptor to a core component of a small economy and they are standing outside the IMF to survive.

There are currently 50-60 small countries that depend on borrowing from the IMF (that too in dollars paying interest in dollars - given competition levels guess what dollar generating capacities small economies have? They end up economic vassals of larger systems or selling off national assets or being used in geopolitical games).

On the other hand look at China and India. They have more provinces/states than the EU and larger populations. Vastly differently economies spanning all those subunits. Yet you wont find any of those subunits complaining about their central bank setting monetary policy.

Why? Cuz look at the surroundings - Sri Lanka/Pakistan/Myanmar/Bangladesh/Thailand/Indonesia/even South Korea all at one point or another requiring the IMF to step in and bail them out when they ran into trouble.

The world is too complex and fast/ever changing and small economies are increasingly dependent on larger economies to manage the unknowns and unpredictability that lie ahead. Its almost become impossible to survive by themselves. Sort of like running a book store in the era of Amazon.

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1. petesergeant ◴[] No.44505953[source]
> Yet you wont find any of those subunits complaining about their central bank setting monetary policy

I mean and also the US, but the key difference here is that those are also cohesive countries where wealth transfers between different areas is the norm. Much less problematic if a policy is better for New York than Alabama if you know for sure that the federal government is going to make sure Alabama doesn't get screwed.

In the EU you have the opposite problem: policies that benefit rich countries will result in the rich countries complaining about how they support the other economies and moralizing.

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2. joules77 ◴[] No.44506152[source]
Ofcourse they will complain but they also learn to stay rich and be a large power you have to pay attention to the needs of others. If you don't, others will step into that space and the less others depend on you, the less relevant you become. Its like a learning process that takes its own sweet time.
3. ◴[] No.44506173[source]