←back to thread

I don't think AGI is right around the corner

(www.dwarkesh.com)
334 points mooreds | 1 comments | 06 Jul 25 20:45 UTC | HN request time: 0.202s | source
Show context
dathinab ◴[06 Jul 25 21:54 UTC] No.44484445[source]▶
I _hope_ AGI is not right around the corner, for social political reasons we are absolutely not ready for it and it might push the future of humanity into a dystopia abyss.

but also just taking what we have now with some major power usage reduction and minor improvements here and there already seems like something which can be very usable/useful in a lot of areas (and to some degree we aren't even really ready for that either, but I guess thats normal with major technological change)

it's just that for those companies creating foundational models it's quite unclear how they can recoup their already spend cost without either major break through or forcefully (or deceptively) pushing it into a lot more places then it fits into

replies(6): >>44484506 #>>44484517 #>>44485067 #>>44485492 #>>44485764 #>>44486142 #
pbreit ◴[06 Jul 25 22:06 UTC] No.44484517[source]▶
Must "AGI" match human intelligence exactly or would outperforming in some functions and underpformin in others qualify?
replies(6): >>44484575 #>>44484600 #>>44484769 #>>44484956 #>>44488494 #>>44489281 #
1. dathinab ◴[07 Jul 25 11:43 UTC] No.44489281[source]▶
no it doesn't has to it just has to be "general"

as in it can learn by itself to solve any kind of generic task it can practically interface it (at lest which isn't way to complicated).

to some degree LLMs can do so theoretically but

- learning (i.e. training them) is way to slow and costly

- domain adoption (later learning) often has a ton of unintended side effects (like forgetting a bunch of important previously learned things)

- it can't really learn by itself in a interactive manner

- "learning" by e.g. retrieving data from knowledge data base and including it into answers (e.g. RAG) isn't really learning but just information retrieval, also it has issues with context windows and planing

I could imagine OpenAI putting together multiple LLMs + RAG + planing systems etc. to create something which technically could be named AGI but which isn't really the break through people associate with AGI in the not too distant future.