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336 points mooreds | 1 comments | | HN request time: 0.001s | source
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raspasov ◴[] No.44485275[source]
Anyone who claims that a poorly definined concept, AGI, is right around the corner is most likely:

- trying to sell something

- high on their own stories

- high on exogenous compounds

- all of the above

LLMs are good at language. They are OK summarizers of text by design but not good at logic. Very poor at spatial reasoning and as a result poor at connecting concepts together.

Just ask any of the crown jewel LLM models "What's the biggest unsolved problem in the [insert any] field".

The usual result is a pop-science-level article but with ton of subtle yet critical mistakes! Even worse, the answer sounds profound on the surface. In reality, it's just crap.

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andyfilms1 ◴[] No.44486182[source]
Thousands are being laid off, supposedly because they're "being replaced with AI," implying the AI is as good or better as humans at these jobs. Managers and execs are workers, too--so if the AI really is so good, surely they should recuse themselves and go live a peaceful life with the wealth they've accrued.

I don't know about you, but I can't imagine that ever happening. To me, that alone is a tip off that this tech, while amazing, can't live up to the hype in the long term.

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1. visarga ◴[] No.44486743[source]
> Managers and execs are workers, too--so if the AI really is so good, surely they should recuse themselves and go live a peaceful life

One thing that doesn't get mentioned is AI capability for being held accountable. AI is fundamentally unaccountable. Like the genie from the lamp, it will grant you the 3 wishes but you bear the consequences.

So what can we do when the tasks are critically important, like deciding on an investment or spending much time and resources on a pursuit? We still need the managers. We need humans for all tasks of consequence where risks are taken. Not because humans are smarter, but because we have skin.

Even on the other side, that of goals, desires, choosing problems to be solved - AI has nothing to say. It has no desires of its own. It needs humans to expose the problem space inside which AI could generate value. It generates no value of its own.

This second observation means AI value will not concentrate in the hands of a few, but instead will be widespread. It's no different than Linux, yes, it has a high initial development cost, but then it generates value in the application layer which is as distributed as it gets. Each human using Linux exposes their own problems to the software to get help, and value is distributed across all problem contexts.

I have come to think that generating the opportunity for AI to provide value, and then incurring the outcomes, good or bad, of that work, are fundamentally human and distributed across society.