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I don't think AGI is right around the corner

(www.dwarkesh.com)
336 points mooreds | 2 comments | 06 Jul 25 20:45 UTC | HN request time: 0s | source
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raspasov ◴[06 Jul 25 23:54 UTC] No.44485275[source]▶
Anyone who claims that a poorly definined concept, AGI, is right around the corner is most likely:

- trying to sell something

- high on their own stories

- high on exogenous compounds

- all of the above

LLMs are good at language. They are OK summarizers of text by design but not good at logic. Very poor at spatial reasoning and as a result poor at connecting concepts together.

Just ask any of the crown jewel LLM models "What's the biggest unsolved problem in the [insert any] field".

The usual result is a pop-science-level article but with ton of subtle yet critical mistakes! Even worse, the answer sounds profound on the surface. In reality, it's just crap.

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1. refurb ◴[07 Jul 25 01:56 UTC] No.44485998[source]▶
This is a good summary of what LLM offer today.

My company is desperately trying to incorporate AI (to tell investors they are). The fact that LLM gets thing wrong is a huge problem since most work can’t be wrong and if if a human needs to carefully go through output to check it, it’s often just as much work as having that same human just create the output themselves.

But languages is one place LLMs shine. We often need to translate technical docs to layman language and LLMs work great. It quickly find words and phrases to describe complex topics. Then a human can do a final round of revisions.

But anything de novo? Or requiring logic? It works about as well as a high school student with no background knowledge.

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2. smhinsey ◴[07 Jul 25 02:03 UTC] No.44486048[source]▶
Fundamentally, they are really powerful text transformers with some additional capability. The further away from that sweet spot and the closer to anthropomorphization the more unreliable the output