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I don't think AGI is right around the corner

(www.dwarkesh.com)
334 points mooreds | 3 comments | 06 Jul 25 20:45 UTC | HN request time: 0.858s | source
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dathinab ◴[06 Jul 25 21:54 UTC] No.44484445[source]▶
I _hope_ AGI is not right around the corner, for social political reasons we are absolutely not ready for it and it might push the future of humanity into a dystopia abyss.

but also just taking what we have now with some major power usage reduction and minor improvements here and there already seems like something which can be very usable/useful in a lot of areas (and to some degree we aren't even really ready for that either, but I guess thats normal with major technological change)

it's just that for those companies creating foundational models it's quite unclear how they can recoup their already spend cost without either major break through or forcefully (or deceptively) pushing it into a lot more places then it fits into

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twelve40 ◴[06 Jul 25 22:05 UTC] No.44484506[source]▶
I agree and sincerely hope this bubble pops soon

> Meta Invests $100 Billion into Augmented Reality

that fool controls the board and he seems to be just desperately throwing insane ad money against the wall hoping that something sticks

for Altman there is no backing out either, need to make hay while the sun shines

for the rest of us, i really hope these clowns fail like it's 2000 and never get to their dystopian matrix crap.

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pbreit ◴[06 Jul 25 22:23 UTC] No.44484649[source]▶
"that fool" created a $1.8 trillion company.
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1. SoftTalker ◴[07 Jul 25 01:08 UTC] No.44485710[source]▶
He created a company that tracks and profiles people, psychologically manipulates them, and sells ads. And has zero ethical qualms about the massive social harm they have left in their wake.

That doesn't tell me anything about his ability to build "augmented reality" or otherwise use artificial intelligence in any way that people will want to pay for. We'll see.

Ford and GM have a century of experience building cars but they can't seem to figure out EVs despite trying for nearly two decades now.

Tesla hit the ball out of the park with EVs but can't figure out self-driving.

Being good at one thing does not mean you will be good at everything you try.

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2. packetlost ◴[07 Jul 25 02:11 UTC] No.44486077[source]▶
> Ford and GM have a century of experience building cars but they can't seem to figure out EVs despite trying for nearly two decades now.

Your EV knowledge is 3 years out of date. Both Ford and GM have well liked and selling EVs. Meanwhile Tesla's sales are cratering.

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3. masfoobar ◴[07 Jul 25 13:50 UTC] No.44490365[source]▶
I was rather sad when everyone moved away from MySpace to Facebook. While the interface today would likely be poor, I felt it was much better than what Facebook was offering. Still its hard to believe it was around 19 years ago many started to move over.

While I cannot remember the names of these sites, there were various attempts to create a shared platform website where you could create a profile and communicate with others. I remember joining a few at least back in 2002 before MySpace, Yahoo360. There was also Bebo which, I think, was for the younger kids of the day.

Lets not forget about friendsreunited.

Many Companies become successful being at the right place at the right time. Facebook is one of those companies.

Had facebook been created a year or so beforehand (or a year or two after) we would likely be using some other "social media" today. Be interesting how that would have compared to facebook. Would it be "more evil" ???

Regardless, whether its Facebook/MarkZuckerberg or [insert_social_media]/[owner]... we would still end up with a new celebrity millionnaire/billionnaire.. and would still be considered "a fool" one way or another.