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I don't think AGI is right around the corner

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334 points mooreds | 1 comments | 06 Jul 25 20:45 UTC | HN request time: 0.203s | source
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deadbabe ◴[06 Jul 25 21:21 UTC] No.44484158[source]▶
I’ve noticed it’s becoming a lot more popular lately for people to come out and say AGI is still very, very far away. Is the hype cycle ending somewhat? Have we passed peak LLM?

Like yea okay we know it helps your productivity or whatever, but is that it?

replies(2): >>44484228 #>>44485624 #
1. gjm11 ◴[07 Jul 25 00:53 UTC] No.44485624[source]▶
Patel isn't saying that AGI is still very, very far away. He says his best estimate is 2032 and "ASI" in 2028 is "a totally plausible outcome".

(He thinks it might be quite a long way away: "the 2030s or even the 2040s", and it seems to me that the "2040s" scenarios are ones in which substantially longer than that is also plausible.)