> A fair number of current AI luminaries have self-selected by their belief that they might be the ones getting to AGI
People in the industry, especially higher up, are making absolute bank, and it's their job to say that they're "a few years away" from AGI, regardless of if they actually believe it or not. If everyone was like "yep, we're gonna squeeze maybe 10-15% more benchie juice out of this good ole transformer thingy and then we'll have to come up with something else", I don't think that would go very well with investors/shareholders...