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I don't think AGI is right around the corner

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336 points mooreds | 3 comments | 06 Jul 25 20:45 UTC | HN request time: 1.583s | source
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dathinab ◴[06 Jul 25 21:54 UTC] No.44484445[source]▶
I _hope_ AGI is not right around the corner, for social political reasons we are absolutely not ready for it and it might push the future of humanity into a dystopia abyss.

but also just taking what we have now with some major power usage reduction and minor improvements here and there already seems like something which can be very usable/useful in a lot of areas (and to some degree we aren't even really ready for that either, but I guess thats normal with major technological change)

it's just that for those companies creating foundational models it's quite unclear how they can recoup their already spend cost without either major break through or forcefully (or deceptively) pushing it into a lot more places then it fits into

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1. tshaddox ◴[07 Jul 25 00:30 UTC] No.44485492[source]▶
If birth rates are as much a cause for concern as many people seem to think, and we absolutely need to solve it (instead of solving, for instance, the fact that the economy purportedly requires exponential population growth forever), perhaps we should hope that AGI comes soon.
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2. otabdeveloper4 ◴[07 Jul 25 07:27 UTC] No.44487604[source]▶
We're not in a stable state now, it's not about population growth, it's about not literally dying out.

With a birth rate of 1 population will halve every generation. This is an apocalyptic scenario and incompatible with industrial civilization.

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3. tshaddox ◴[07 Jul 25 18:22 UTC] No.44493223[source]▶
I am worried about what will happen to various nations' economies relatively soon, long before the population actually halves, but I'm not worried that the fertility rate would continue on its trend as demographics change. Ignoring the potential second-order effects of economic collapse, wars over resources, etc., I think fertility rate would stabilize given that culture and genetics would by definition quickly become dominated by the people who do reproduce.