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I don't think AGI is right around the corner

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336 points mooreds | 9 comments | 06 Jul 25 20:45 UTC | HN request time: 0.001s | source | bottom
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dathinab ◴[06 Jul 25 21:54 UTC] No.44484445[source]▶
I _hope_ AGI is not right around the corner, for social political reasons we are absolutely not ready for it and it might push the future of humanity into a dystopia abyss.

but also just taking what we have now with some major power usage reduction and minor improvements here and there already seems like something which can be very usable/useful in a lot of areas (and to some degree we aren't even really ready for that either, but I guess thats normal with major technological change)

it's just that for those companies creating foundational models it's quite unclear how they can recoup their already spend cost without either major break through or forcefully (or deceptively) pushing it into a lot more places then it fits into

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twelve40 ◴[06 Jul 25 22:05 UTC] No.44484506[source]▶
I agree and sincerely hope this bubble pops soon

> Meta Invests $100 Billion into Augmented Reality

that fool controls the board and he seems to be just desperately throwing insane ad money against the wall hoping that something sticks

for Altman there is no backing out either, need to make hay while the sun shines

for the rest of us, i really hope these clowns fail like it's 2000 and never get to their dystopian matrix crap.

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pbreit ◴[06 Jul 25 22:23 UTC] No.44484649[source]▶
"that fool" created a $1.8 trillion company.
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1. AaronAPU ◴[06 Jul 25 23:29 UTC] No.44485117[source]▶
I’m always fascinated when someone equates profit with intelligence. There are many very wealthy fools and there always have been. Plenty of ingredients to substitute for intelligence.

Neither necessary nor sufficient.

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2. falcor84 ◴[07 Jul 25 00:03 UTC] No.44485330[source]▶
I really don't see how a person can build one of the most successful companies in history from scratch without exhibiting intelligence.

There are many things we can and should say about Zuckerberg, but I don't think that unintelligent is one them.

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3. apparent ◴[07 Jul 25 00:18 UTC] No.44485410[source]▶
You can be a wealthy fool who inherited money, or married into it. It is also possible to be a wealthy fool who was just in the right place at the right time. But I would guess that people who appear to have "earned" their money are much less likely to be wealthy fools than those who appear to have inherited/married into it.
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4. DanHulton ◴[07 Jul 25 00:32 UTC] No.44485502[source]▶
You can be terribly intelligent and be an incredible fool at the same time. The two aren't mutually exclusive.
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5. skeeter2020 ◴[07 Jul 25 01:48 UTC] No.44485943[source]▶
No kidding, that would make Larry Ellison the richest, most intelligent lawn mower in the world.
6. skeeter2020 ◴[07 Jul 25 01:50 UTC] No.44485960[source]▶
Intelligence probably IS positively correlated with success, but the formula is complex and involves many other factors, so I have to believe it's relatively weak correlation. Anecdotally I know about as many smart failures as smart successes.
7. ipaddr ◴[07 Jul 25 02:05 UTC] No.44486054[source]▶
We see this all of the time. Business makes successful bets in one area and tries to make bets in new area and fails.

Once you achieve wealth it gives you the opportunity to make more bets many of which will fail.

The greater and younger the success the more hubris. You are more likely to see fools or people taking bad risks when they earned it themselves. They have a history of betting on themselves and past success that creates an ego that overrides common sense.

When you inherit money you protect it (or spend it on material things) because you have no history of ever being able to generate money.

8. muzani ◴[07 Jul 25 04:58 UTC] No.44486889{3}[source]▶
Intelligence is the ability to creatively solve problems. Wisdom is picking the right problems to solve.
9. Bender ◴[07 Jul 25 13:38 UTC] No.44490271[source]▶
It certainly doesn't hurt when the government profiles and grooms intelligent people out of Stanford SRI the dark side, Harvard, hands them an unlimited credit card and says, "Make this thing that can do x,y,z." and then helps them network with like-minded creators and removes any obstacles in their path. One has to at least admit that was a contributing factor to their success as the vast majority of people do not get these perks.

Partially related documentary [1]

[1] - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a3Xxi0b9trY [video][44 mins]