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I don't think AGI is right around the corner

(www.dwarkesh.com)
336 points mooreds | 5 comments | 06 Jul 25 20:45 UTC | HN request time: 0.833s | source
1. pu_pe ◴[06 Jul 25 22:11 UTC] No.44484553[source]▶
While most takes here are pessimist about AI, the author himself suggests he believes there is a 50% chance of AGI being achieved by the early 2030's, and says we should still prepare for the odd possibility of misaligned ASI by 2028. If anything, the author is bullish on AI.
replies(1): >>44484832 #
2. goatlover ◴[06 Jul 25 22:48 UTC] No.44484832[source]▶
How would we prepare for misaligned ASI in 3 years? That happens and all bets are off.
replies(3): >>44486389 #>>44489687 #>>44491087 #
3. robertritz ◴[07 Jul 25 03:10 UTC] No.44486389[source]▶
Off grid power, air gapped compute, growing food, etc. Basically what Zuck is doing minus the SEALs and bunkers.
4. energy123 ◴[07 Jul 25 12:31 UTC] No.44489687[source]▶
It's a hard problem. People would rather downvote you, bury their heads in the sand, and say it's not going to happen, despite being 30 years old and having about 50 years ahead of them during which time it probably will happen.
5. tim333 ◴[07 Jul 25 14:59 UTC] No.44491087[source]▶
Ooh... I just saw a movie about that. I think it involves sending Tom Cruise to a sunken submarine.