←back to thread

I don't think AGI is right around the corner

(www.dwarkesh.com)
336 points mooreds | 1 comments | 06 Jul 25 20:45 UTC | HN request time: 0.204s | source
Show context
kachapopopow ◴[06 Jul 25 21:23 UTC] No.44484173[source]▶
Honestly, o3 pro with actual 1m context window (every model right now drops out at around 128k) that's as fast and cheap as 4o is already good enough for me.
replies(2): >>44484338 #>>44484428 #
v5v3 ◴[06 Jul 25 21:42 UTC] No.44484338[source]▶
Thats nice to know.

What's that got to do with this post though.

replies(1): >>44484387 #
kachapopopow ◴[06 Jul 25 21:48 UTC] No.44484387[source]▶
I don't feel like the AGI people are talking about isn't necessary, something like that would at minimum require as much compute as neurons and synapses that of a teen (minus the requirements to maintain a body).

I think what we have right now with some (very difficult to achieve, but possible in the forseeable future) tweaks we can already see 95% of what an "AGI" could do come true: put most of the population out of jobs, work together and improve itself (to a limited degree) and cause general chaos.

replies(1): >>44484511 #
1. v5v3 ◴[06 Jul 25 22:06 UTC] No.44484511[source]▶
It would put people out of their 'current jobs' which many of them hate and only do to pay the bills.

A lot of people would be far happier and would find something better to do with their day if universal income came along.

Take developers as an example, many don't enjoy the corporate CRUD apps they do.