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I don't think AGI is right around the corner

(www.dwarkesh.com)
334 points mooreds | 2 comments | 06 Jul 25 20:45 UTC | HN request time: 0.401s | source
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behnamoh ◴[06 Jul 25 21:26 UTC] No.44484199[source]▶
Startups and AI shops: "AGI near, 5 years max" (please give us more money please)

Scientists and Academics: "AGI far, LLMs not gonna AGI"

AI Doomers: "AGI here, AI sentient, we dead"

AI Influencers: "BREAKING: AGI achieved, here's 5 things to know about o3"

Investors: stonks go down "AGI cures all diseases", stonks go up "AGI bad" (then shorts stonks)

replies(1): >>44484486 #
1. dinkumthinkum ◴[06 Jul 25 22:01 UTC] No.44484486[source]▶
I agree with you. However, I think AI Doomers also include people that think less than AGI systems can collapse the economy and destroy societies also!
replies(1): >>44484787 #
2. shippage ◴[06 Jul 25 22:42 UTC] No.44484787[source]▶
That's also a concern. Many day-to-day tasks for employees are repetitive to the point even a less-than-AGI system could potentially disrupt those jobs (and there are people actively working right now to make this happen).

The best case scenario would be the employees taking advantage of their increased productivity to make themselves more valuable to their employer (and if they are lucky, gain increased compensation).

However, it's also possible employers decide they don't need many of their lower level workforce anymore because the remaining ones are more productive. It wouldn't take much of this to drive unemployment levels way up. Perhaps not to the level of the Great Depression, at least not for a while, but it is certainly a potential outcome of the ongoing, long-term process in our economic system of increasingly automating repetitive, low skill tasks.

IOW, it doesn't take AGI to throw a lot of people out of work. It's happened many times with other technologies in the past, and when it happens, things can get pretty bad for a large number of people even if the majority are still doing okay (or even great, for those at the top).