←back to thread

198 points baylearn | 1 comments | | HN request time: 0.359s | source
Show context
empiko ◴[] No.44471933[source]
Observe what the AI companies are doing, not what they are saying. If they would expect to achieve AGI soon, their behaviour would be completely different. Why bother developing chatbots or doing sales, when you will be operating AGI in a few short years? Surely, all resources should go towards that goal, as it is supposed to usher the humanity into a new prosperous age (somehow).
replies(9): >>44471988 #>>44471991 #>>44472148 #>>44472874 #>>44473259 #>>44473640 #>>44474131 #>>44475570 #>>44476315 #
bluGill ◴[] No.44473640[source]
The people who make the money in gold rushes sold shovels, not mined the gold. Sure some random people found gold and made a lot of money, but many others didn't strike it rich.

As such even if there is a lot of money AI will make, it can still be the right decision to sell tools to others who will figure out how to use it. And of course if it turns out another pointless fad with no real value you still make money. (I'd predict the answer is in between - we are not going to get some AGI that takes over the world, but there will be niches where it is a big help and those niches will be worth selling tools into)

replies(2): >>44474561 #>>44480471 #
1. mathgeek ◴[] No.44480471[source]
> The people who make the money in gold rushes sold shovels, not mined the gold. Sure some random people found gold and made a lot of money, but many others didn't strike it rich.

Another important group to remember is those who owned the infrastructure necessary for the prospectors to survive. The folks who owned (or strong-armed their way into) the services around housing, food, alcohol, etc. made off like bandits.