Nvidia won, we all lost

Right now, all silicon talk is bullshit. It has been for a while.

It became obvious when old e-waste Xeons were turned into viable, usable machines, years ago.

Something is obviously wrong with this entire industry, and I cannot wait for it to pop. THIS will be the excitement everyone is looking for.

Do you have a timeframe for the pop? I need some excitement.

More a sequence of potential events than a timeframe.

High-end GPUs are already useless for gaming (a low-end GPU is enough), their traditional source of demand. They're floating on artificial demand for a while now.

There are two markets that currently could use them: LLMs and Augmented Reality. Both of these are currently useless, and getting more useless by the day.

CPUs are just piggybacking on all of this.

So, lots of things hanging on unrealized promises. It will pop when there is no next use for super high-end GPUs.

War is a potential user of such devices, and I predict it could be the next thing after LLMs and AR. But then if war breaks out in such a scale to drive silicon prices up, lots of things are going to pop, and food and fuel will boom to such a magnitude that will make silicon look silly.

I think it will pop before it comes to the point of war driving it, and it will happen within our lifetimes (so, not a Nostradamus-style prediction that will only be realized long-after I'm dead).

I don't see how GPU factories could be running in the event of war "in such a scale to drive silicon prices up". Unless you mean that supply will be low and people scavanging TI calculators for processors to make boxes playing Tetris and Space Invaders.

Why not?

This is the exact model in which WWII operated. Car and plane supply chains were practically nationalized to support the military industry.

If drones, surveillance, satellites become the main war tech, they'll all use silicon, and things will be fully nationalized.

We already have all sorts of hints of this. Doesn't need a genius to predict that it could be what happens to these industries.

The balance with food and fuel is more delicate though. A war with drones, satellites and surveillance is not like WWII, there's a commercial aspect to it. If you put it on paper, food and fuel project more power and thus, can move more money. Any public crisis can make people forget about GPUs and jeopardize the process of nationalization that is currently being implemented, which still depends on relatively peaceful international trade.

> Why not?

Bombs that fly between continents or are launched from submarines for any "big scale" war.

I don't see how this is connected to what you said before.

My point is that GPU factories are big static targets with sensitive supply chains and thus have no strategic importance in being so easy to distrupt.

So are airplane and car factories. I already explained all of this, what keeps the supply chain together, and what their strategic value is.