>If they truly believed we’re at most five years from world-transforming AI, they wouldn’t be switching jobs, no matter how large the pay bump (they’re already affluent).
What ridiculous logic is this? TO base the entire premise that AGI is not imminent based on job switching? How about basing it on something more concrete.
How do people come up with such shakey foundations to support their conclusions? It's obvious. They come up with the conclusion first then they find whatever they can to support it. Unfortunately if dubious logic is all that's available then that's what they will say.