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197 points baylearn | 1 comments | | HN request time: 0.205s | source
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bestouff ◴[] No.44471877[source]
Are there some people here in HN believing in AGI "soonish" ?
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Davidzheng ◴[] No.44472107[source]
what's your definition? AGI original definition is median human across almost all fields which I believe is basically achieved. If superhuman (better than best expert) I expect <2030 for all nonrobotic tasks and <2035 for all tasks
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gnz11 ◴[] No.44473060[source]
How are you coming to the conclusion that "median human" is "basically achieved"? Current AI has no means of understanding and synthesizing new ideas the way a human would. It's all generative.
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1. Davidzheng ◴[] No.44473626[source]
synthesizing new ideas: in order to express the idea in our language it basically means you have some new combinations of existing building blocks, just sometimes the building blocks are low level enough and the combination is esoteric enough. It's a spectrum again. I think current models are in fact quite capable of combining existing ideas and building blocks in new ways (this is how human innovation also happens). Most of my evidence comes from asking newer models o3/gemini-2.5-pro for research-level mathematics questions which do not appear in existing literature but is of course connected with them.

so these arguments by fundamental distinctions I believe all cannot work--the question is how new are the AI contributions. Nowadays there's of course still no theoretical breakthroughs in mathematics from AI (though biology could be close!). Also I think the AIs have understanding--but tbf the only thing we can test is through testing on tricky questions which I think support my side. Though of course some of these questions have interpretations which are not testable--so I don't want to argue about those.