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197 points baylearn | 1 comments | | HN request time: 0.202s | source
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empiko ◴[] No.44471933[source]
Observe what the AI companies are doing, not what they are saying. If they would expect to achieve AGI soon, their behaviour would be completely different. Why bother developing chatbots or doing sales, when you will be operating AGI in a few short years? Surely, all resources should go towards that goal, as it is supposed to usher the humanity into a new prosperous age (somehow).
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rvz ◴[] No.44471991[source]
Exactly. For example, Microsoft was building data centers all over the world since "AGI" was "around the corner" according to them.

Now they are cancelling those plans. For them "AGI" was cancelled.

OpenAI claims to be closer and closer to "AGI" as more top scientists left or are getting poached by other labs that are behind.

So why would you leave if the promise of achieving "AGI" was going to produce "$100B dollars of profits" as per OpenAI's and Microsoft's definition in their deal?

Their actions tell more than any of their statements or claims.

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cm277 ◴[] No.44472138[source]
Yes, this. Microsoft has other businesses that can make a lot of money (regular Azure) and tons of cash flow. The fact that they are pulling back from the market leader (OpenAI) whom they mostly owned should be all the negative signal people need: AGI is not close and there is no real moat even for OpenAI.
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whynotminot ◴[] No.44472979[source]
Well, there’s clauses in their relationship with OpenAI that sever the relationship when AGI is reached. So it’s actually not in Microsoft’s interests for OpenAI to get there
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PessimalDecimal ◴[] No.44473030[source]
I haven't heard of this. Can you provide a reference? I'd love to see how they even define AGI crisply enough for a contract.
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1. diggan ◴[] No.44473162[source]
> I'd love to see how they even define AGI crisply enough for a contract.

Seems to be about this:

> As per the current terms, when OpenAI creates AGI - defined as a "highly autonomous system that outperforms humans at most economically valuable work" - Microsoft's access to such a technology would be void.

https://www.reuters.com/technology/openai-seeks-unlock-inves...