> This is purely an observation: You only jump ship in the middle of a conquest if either all ships are arriving at the same time (unlikely) or neither is arriving at all. This means that no AI lab is close to AGI. Their stated AGI timelines are “at the latest, in a few years,” but their revealed timelines are “it’ll happen at some indefinite time in the future.”
This makes no sense to me at all. Is it a war metaphor? A race? Why is there no reason to jump ship? Doesn't it make sense to try to get on the fastest ship? Doesn't it make sense to diversify your stock portfolio if you have doubts?