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627 points cratermoon | 6 comments | | HN request time: 1.544s | source | bottom
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gyomu ◴[] No.44461457[source]
Broadly agreed with all the points outlined in there.

But for me the biggest issue with all this — that I don't see covered in here, or maybe just a little bit in passing — is what all of this is doing to beginners, and the learning pipeline.

> There are people I once respected who, apparently, don’t actually enjoy doing the thing. They would like to describe what they want and receive Whatever — some beige sludge that vaguely resembles it. That isn’t programming, though.

> I glimpsed someone on Twitter a few days ago, also scoffing at the idea that anyone would decide not to use the Whatever machine. I can’t remember exactly what they said, but it was something like: “I created a whole album, complete with album art, in 3.5 hours. Why wouldn’t I use the make it easier machine?”

When you're a beginner, it's totally normal to not really want to put in the hard work. You try drawing a picture, and it sucks. You try playing the guitar, and you can't even get simple notes right. Of course a machine where you can just say "a picture in the style of Pokémon, but of my cat" and get a perfect result out is much more tempting to a 12 year old kid than the prospect of having to grind for 5 years before being kind of good.

But up until now, you had no choice and to keep making crappy pictures and playing crappy songs until you actually start to develop a taste for the effort, and a few years later you find yourself actually pretty darn competent at the thing. That's a pretty virtuous cycle.

I shudder to think where we'll be if the corporate-media machine keeps hammering the message "you don't have to bother learning how to draw, drawing is hard, just get ChatGPT to draw pictures for you" to young people for years to come.

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maegul ◴[] No.44461502[source]
Agreed!

The only silver lining I can see is that a new perspective may be forced on how well or badly we’ve facilitated learning, usability, generally navigating pain points and maybe even all the dusty presumptions around the education / vocational / professional-development pipeline.

Before, demand for employment/salary pushed people through. Now, if actual and reliable understanding, expertise and quality is desirable, maybe paying attention to how well the broader system cultivates and can harness these attributes can be of value.

Intuitively though, my feeling is that we’re in some cultural turbulence, likely of a truly historical magnitude, in which nothing can be taken for granted and some “battles” were likely lost long ago when we started down this modern-computing path.

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bruce511 ◴[] No.44461579[source]
To be fair, LLMs are just the most recent step in a long road of doing the same thing.

At any point of progress in history you can look backwards and forwards and the world is different.

Before tractors a man with an ox could plough x field in y time. After tractors he can plough much larger areas. The nature of farming changes. (Fewer people needed to farm more land. )

The car arrives, horses leave. Computers arrive, the typing pool goes away. Typing was a skill, now everyone does it and spell checkers hide imperfections.

So yeah LLMs make "drawing easier". Which means just that. Is that good or bad? Well I can't draw the old fashioned way so for me, good.

Cooking used to be hard. Today cooking is easy, and very accessible. More importantly good food (cooked at home or elsewhere) is accessible to a much higher % of the population. Preparing the evening meal no longer starts with "pluck 2 chickens" and grinding a kilo of dried corn.

So yeah, LLMs are here. And yes things will change. Some old jobs will become obsolete. Some new ones will appear. This is normal, it's been happening forever.

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ako ◴[] No.44461769[source]
The scare for most people is that AI isn't better tools, but outsourced work. In the past we would create our own products, now other countries do this. In the past we did our own thinking and creative activities, now LLMs will.

If we don't have something better to do we'll all be at home doing nothing. We all need jobs to afford living, and already today many have bullshit jobs. Are we going to a world where 99.9% of the people need a bullshit job just to survive?

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bruce511 ◴[] No.44461900[source]
Personally I think your basic premise is false, hence your conclusion is false.

>> We all need jobs to afford living

In many countries this is already not true. There is already enough wealth that there is enough for everyone.

Yes, the western mindset is kinda "you don't work, you don't get paid". The idea that people can "free load" on the system is offensive at a really deep emotional level. If I suggest that a third of the people can work, and the other 2 thirds do nothing, but get supported, most will get distressed [1]. The very essence of US society is that we are defined by our work.

And yet if 2% of the work force is in agriculture, and produce enough food for all, why is hunger a thing?

As jobs become ever more productive, perhaps just -considering- a world where worth is not linked to output is a useful thought exercise.

No country has figured this out perfectly yet. Norway is pretty close. Lots of Europe has endless unemployment benefits. Yes, there's still progress to be made there.

[1] of course, even in the US, already it's OK for only a 3rd to work. Children don't work. Neither do retirees. Both essentially live off the labor of those in-between. But imagine if we keep raising the start-working age, while reducing retirement benefits age....

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1. ako ◴[] No.44462524[source]
Sounds great in theory, but doesn't seem very realistic. There will always be people that want power over other people, and having more than others will give them that power.

And universally, if you have nothing, you lead a very poor life. You life in a minimal house (trailer park, slums, or housing without running water nor working sewage). You don't have a car, you can't travel, education opportunities are limited.

Most kids want to become independent, so they have control over their spending and power over their own lives. Poor retirees are unhappy, sometimes even have to keep working to afford living.

Norway is close because they have oil to sell, but if no one can afford to buy oil, and they can't afford to buy cars, nor products made with oil, Norway will soon run out of money.

You can wonder, why is Russia attacking Ukraine, russia has enough land, doesn't need more. But in the end there will always be people motivated by more power and money, which makes it impossible to create this communism 2.0 that you're describing.

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2. bruce511 ◴[] No.44462740[source]
You have equated a basic income with equality. That's a misunderstanding.

I'm not suggesting equality or communism. I'm suggesting a bottom threshold where you get enough even if you don't work.

Actually Norway gets most of that from investments, not oil. They did sell oil, but invested that income into other things. The sovereign wealth fund now pays out to all citizens in a sustainable way.

Equally your understanding of dole living in Europe is incomplete. A person on the dole in the UK is perfectly able yo live in a house with running water etc. I know people who are.

Creating a base does not mean "no one works". Lots of people in Europe have a job despite unemployment money. And yes most-all jobs pay better than unemployment. And yes lifestyles are not equal. It's not really communism (as you understand it.)

This is not about equal power or equal wealth. It's about the idea that a job should not be linked to survival.

Why is 60 the retirement age? Why not 25? That sounds like a daft question, but understanding it can help understand how dome things that seem cast in stone, really aren't.

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3. ako ◴[] No.44463096[source]
In live in europe, so understand some of it, part of my family comes from eastern europe, so have also seen that form of communism in the past.

Living on welfare in the Netherlands is not a good life, and definitely not something we should accept for the majority of the people.

Being retired on only a state pension is a bad life, you need to save for retirement to have a good life. And saving takes time, that's why you can't retire at 25.

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4. bruce511 ◴[] No.44464525{3}[source]
I am not saying that the reality exists.

I'm saying that the blind acceptance of the status quo does not allow for that status to be questioned.

You see the welfare amounts, or retirement amounts as limited. Well then, what would it take to increase them? How could a society increase productivity such that more could be produced in less time?

Are some of our mindsets preventing us from seeing alternatives?

Given that society has reinvented itself many times through history, are more reinvention possible?

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5. ako ◴[] No.44465458{4}[source]
I hope you're right, but considering human nature, it's not something i would bet my money on. It's not how humans are wired.
6. johnnyanmac ◴[] No.44498703{4}[source]
>Are some of our mindsets preventing us from seeing alternatives?

no, just corporate greed and political corruption. If we wanna change that, words won't do at this point.

>Given that society has reinvented itself many times through history, are more reinvention possible?

Yes, and through what catalyst has society reinvented itself? Reasonable discourse to a civil population appealing to emotion and reason? A sudden burst of altruism to try and cement a positive legacy?

It will reinvent itself eventually. Definitely in my lifetime. I don't know how many of us will survive to see the other side.