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306 points gammarator | 2 comments | | HN request time: 0.599s | source

Minor Planet Electronic Circular: https://minorplanetcenter.net/mpec/K25/K25N12.html
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ddahlen ◴[] No.44451980[source]
This one is coming in fast, it has an eccentricity of over 6 with the current fits. For point of reference, 1I and 2I have eccentricities of 1.2 and 3.3.

Right now it is mostly just a point on the sky, it is difficult to tell if it is active (like a comet) yet. If it is not active, IE: asteroid like, then the current observations put it somewhere between 8-22km in diameter (this depends on the albedo of the surface). From what we know, we would expect it to likely be made up of darker material meaning given that range of diameters it is more likely to be on the larger end. However if it is active, then the dust coming off can make it appear much larger than it is. As it comes in closer to the sun and starts to warm up it may become active (or more active if its already doing stuff).

It will not pass particularly close to any planet. It will be closest to the sun just before Halloween this year at 1.35 au, moving at 68 km/s (earth orbits at 29-30 km/s). It is also retrograde (IE, it is moving in the opposite direction of planetary motion), for an interstellar object this is basically random chance that this is the case.

Link to an orbit viewer: https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/tools/sbdb_lookup.html#/?sstr=3I&vi...

The next couple of weeks will be interesting for a bunch of people I know.

Source: Working on my PhD in orbital dynamics and formerly wrote the asteroid simulation code used on several NASA missions: https://github.com/dahlend/kete

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TMEHpodcast ◴[] No.44454016[source]
Closest approach will be October 29, 2025. It’s currently passing Jupiter’s orbit. I’m amazed that even at this speed it will take that long to get here.

“Space is big. You just won't believe how vastly, hugely, mind-bogglingly big it is.” ~Douglas Adams

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bee_rider ◴[] No.44455042[source]
Sometimes it is hard to think of big space is, especially because we tend to do that while sitting around inside (this is where we have most of our thoughts, after all). Of course space distances are nothing like the distances inside our rooms, no frame of reference.

Instead, go out to the ocean on a clear day, and observe how absurdly vast the ocean is. Just ocean, as far as you can see. Look around and realize you’ve gained absolutely nothing in terms of comprehending the vastness of space, to which the difference between your room and the most sweeping views on Earth are just totally insignificant.

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GolfPopper ◴[] No.44455310[source]
The single best depiction of the Solar System to help grok size and distance is Josh Worth's "If the Moon were only 1 pixel":

https://www.joshworth.com/dev/pixelspace/pixelspace_solarsys...

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1. tambeb ◴[] No.44457644[source]
I also like this solar system model from NASA, https://science.nasa.gov/learning-resources/how-big-is-the-s....

They compare it to a US football field.

"On this scale, the Sun, by far the largest thing in our solar system, is only a ball about two-thirds of an inch (17 millimeters) in diameter sitting on the goal line — that's about the width of a U.S. dime coin. ...

The inner planets — Mercury, Venus, Earth and Mars — are about the size of grains of sand on a football field scale. They would be dwarfed by a typical flea, which is about 3 millimeters long.

Closest to the goal line is Mercury, just under a yard from the end zone (.8 yards to be specific). ... At this scale, Mercury's diameter would be scarcely as large as the point of a needle.

Venus is next. It is 1.4 yards from the end zone. ...

On to Earth, sitting pretty on the 2-yard line. ...

Mars is on the three-yard line of our imaginary football field. ...

Jupiter remains pretty close to our end zone on the 10.5-yard line. ...

Saturn is on the field at 19 yards from the goal line. ...

Uranus ... is about 38 yards from our end zone.

Neptune is where things start to get way out. It is 60 yards from our solar goal line on the imaginary football field. ...

Tiny Pluto is much closer to the opposing team's end zone. It's about 79 yards out from the Sun ...

On this scale, our little friend Voyager 1 has left the game and is well out in the stadium parking lot or beyond."

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2. dmd ◴[] No.44464627[source]
It's illegal to mention the solar system and football without mentioning one of the greatest pieces of science fiction on the two, Jon Bois' 17776 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/17776