Entry-level jobs down by a third since launch of ChatGPT

Okay. It also coincides with the end of the post-pandemic hiring boom and the UK bank rate going from 0.1% to 5.25%. It's kind of funny that reliable data analysis has never been part of the AI hype when you consider that AI is used for data analysis.

> It also coincides with the end of the post-pandemic hiring boom and the UK bank rate going from 0.1% to 5.25%.

I agree that the former is a strong signal. However the latter doesn't tell you anything without further context: did interest rates go up, because the economy was strong, or did rising interest rates dampen the economy?

(It's similar to how you can't tell how hot it is in my apartment, purely from looking at my heating bills: does a low heating bill mean that it's cold in my flat, because I'm too cheap too heat? Or does a low heating bill mean it's summer and really hot anyway?)

interest rates are controlled by central bankers, not magic. they make decisions based on their analysis of the economy. they raised rates to slow down the rate of investment and to suppress wages, in order to get inflation under control. Less money in circulation means reduced demand means prices stay lower, meaning lower inflation. that's the theory anyway, and the explictly expressed reason for raising rates by central banks. there's no mystery about it.

So here you are suggesting that when we observe that interest rates have been raised, we should conclude that the economy was strong? (Otherwise the central bankers wouldn't have raised.)

But the original comment I first replied to seemed to suggest that high interest rates should lead us to deduce a weak economy.

you raise interest rates to slow economic activity, you lower them to speed it up. yes, if interest rates are raised, that means employment is too high, basically, and they want to lower it.