The $25k car is going extinct?

You can still buy a new subcompact car (like a Renault Clio or Skoda Fabia) in Europe for under 20k EUR.

The more interesting question is why these cars disappeared in the US. And while many of the factors discussed here are true for both EU and US (inflation, interest rates, manufacturer profit margins etc) I am surprised no one mentioned the 'SUV loophole' of US regulations that effectively boosted the SUVs (off-road vehicles are classified as non-passenger automobiles with everything that entails, notably much less stringent emission standards) and made the small cars unprofitable to make in comparison.

> I am surprised no one mentioned the 'SUV loophole' of US regulations that effectively boosted the SUVs (off-road vehicles are classified as non-passenger automobiles with everything that entails, notably much less stringent emission standards) and made the small cars unprofitable to make in comparison.

This has become the irrelevant part because "does it have an electric motor in the powertrain" has become more important to fuel economy than vehicle size. There are hybrid SUVs that get better MPG than non-hybrid sedans, to say nothing of the full electric ones.

Which is another reason the average price is increasing. Hybrids have a lower TCO even though they have a higher initial purchase price. People who can do the math realize that paying more up front for a hybrid or full electric is paying less long-term. But then the market for lower priced new cars declines, because the people who can afford a new car can afford to pay a little extra for long-term savings and most of the people who can't afford to do that were buying used to begin with.

>Hybrids have a lower TCO even though they have a higher initial purchase price.

Is this conclusion based just on fuel consumption? From a relatability standpoint, it doesn’t make sense at first blush because you have to have both ICE and EV parts in series in the drivetrain; the total reliability can’t be higher than the individual components of they’re in series.

Depending on the drive trains being compared, the hybrid drivetrain may be overall mechanically simpler than an ICE. A series hybrid can easily have fewer moving parts, fewer friction spots, less reliance on fluid motion through little channels, etc.

And then you're also keeping the moving parts more in their happy zone of temperature, speed, and load instead of needing them to operate in as wide of conditions.

Could you elaborate further?

A hybrid, by definition, combines an ICE and electric drivetrain. While I understand it could be designed for a more efficient range of operation* how could it negate the downsides of an ICE-only design if it requires an ICE? (Are we conflating EV and hybrid?)

* This also means each segment is less globally efficient, meaning the system is less efficient if it has to limp along if one part is inoperable

The pure ICE transmission is probably far more mechanically complicated than the transmission of a series hybrid.

The pure ICE engine and transmission has to deal with some of the most stressful times the motor can handle, extremely high torque demands coming from a stop. Its far less stressful for an electric motor to generate good torque at such low RPMs.

Just two quick examples.

I think you’re still conflating EVs and hybrids. A hybrid has an ICE that is distinct from the mechanical transmission. Hybrids tend to run off the ICE at high speeds because it’s more efficient and use the ICE to charge the battery.

> A series hybrid

A key part of my original statement.

A series hybrid or parallel series hybrid will often have a far simpler transmission in terms of moving parts and what not. You're right, they'll use the gas motor for power going highway speeds, but they're still a lot simpler. Many hybrids effectively only have a single speed for the ICE motor in their "transmission", some have 2-4, compared to modern ICE transmissions which are like 7+ gears.

Note, I do agree, there are some hybrid drive trains that are more complicated than their ICE counterparts, but it is not a given. Many hybrids are a good bit simpler in the end.

One example of a simpler setup would be Toyota's Hybrid Synergy Drive. e-CVT's can be radically simpler mechanically.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hybrid_Synergy_Drive

Yes, that’s why I put deliberately put “series” in my original post.

The math is clear: in series, the system reliability cannot be greater than any single part.

So if the claim is that hybrids are more reliable than ICE, there needs to be some sort of discussion about why you think the ICE is more reliable. You keep bringing up transmissions when the main point is related to the ICE.

Transmissions are required for ICE vehicles they aren’t required for hybrids. It’s one of the many failure points that can be removed.

As to in series being more complicated, starter/alternator + battery already has all the mechanical complexity of a barebones series hybrid. You could technically take a standard ICE car change only electronics and get some of the benefits of a hybrid. Obviously for reliability you’d want beefier electric motors, and … before you know it you’re building a more robust system than a pure ICE.

Yes, so the claim is that the complexity electric motors + batteries + planetary gears + all the ICE/electric interfaces are more reliable than a traditional transmission. I’m open to that argument but nobody has really elaborated in detail. Admittedly, I’m slightly skeptical (at least in the case of a manual gearbox) but would like to hear more detail.

> all the ICE/electric interfaces are more reliable than a traditional transmission

The argument goes like this,

ICE cars have an alternator (electric motor 1), starter (electric motor 2), battery, and transmission. A beefier alternator (generator) + starter (electric motor driving the car) + battery adds less complexity than a transmission. That’s the simplest EV design where the engine only ever charges the battery. It’s perfectly viable for a long range plug in hybrid that only ever uses the engine on long trips.

The downside is batteries have conversion losses, so most hybrids have various ways of directly using engine power which then adds complexity. But ultimately hybrids are more complicated than EV’s but very much can be simpler than modern ICE cars.

PS: Technically some old ICE designs like dynastart used to do the same as hybrids where the same electric motor acted as a starter and alternator but in modern ICE vehicles the tradeoff around now little time the starter is needed and how little power the alternator needs to generate means it’s more efficient to separate it out. http://www.isettadoc.com/files/dynastart.pdf

Thanks for taking the time to detail it. I think that’s a reasonable take.

A couple caveats:

1) most modern hybrids use the ICE at higher speeds for efficiency, right? What does that mean in terms of added complexity and reliability?

2) somewhat of a tangent, but in the original post was regarding cost of ownership, and reliability was brought into the discussion because cost is a function of reliability. But the alternator vs electric motor aspect misses the original point about cost, considering the motor may cost 8x-10x to replace.

All that to say, reliability and cost of ownership is complicated. I was pushing back on the overly simplistic takes and appreciate you adding some nuance.