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355 points Aloisius | 1 comments | | HN request time: 0.201s | source
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trhway ◴[] No.44391823[source]
Foundation of US economy is domestic consumption. The current administration has significantly increased taxes - in the form of tariffs - on that consumption. So, the results are and are going to be as expected by any economy textbook.

Additional obvious effect of tariffs is introducing friction, to say the least, into supply chains, similar to how pandemics did at the beginning with about the same result - inflation and loss of productivity.

I personally have no panic here though - during my quarter of century here i noticed that US economy is extremely resilient and can take a lot of hits and damage, can even get knocked down, yet nothing can get it knocked out, and it would always come back even more roaring. It is though very hard on those who gets the sharp end of stick here, i'd wish that the society would get a bit more empathetic to them.

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gotoeleven ◴[] No.44392225[source]
The hope, at least, is that the tariffs will encourage the creation of more, better, jobs in the US through re-shoring. This would, in theory, also increase domestic consumption though the time frame is longer.
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trhway ◴[] No.44392314[source]
>the tariffs will encourage the creation of more, better, jobs in the US through re-shoring

that isn't possible for any production other than a primitive one. The modern production is very complicated, and in particular contains long lists of components, materials, tools, technological stages of production and engineering services. I.e. it is a pyramid with very wide base. Even large country like US is too small to maintain all what is required for any even moderately complicated product. Tariffs are kind of shrinking the pyramid's base - the result is lower pyramid so to speak.

Of course, you and anybody welcome to bring counter-examples.

>This would, in theory, also increase domestic consumption

It would increase prices, and decrease productivity thus resulting in lower consumption.

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gotoeleven ◴[] No.44392759[source]
Dell used to make computers in the US. Then they moved manufacturing to China. You're saying Dell can't make computers in the US ever again? If the economic incentives are there then the supply chains can be (re-)built, right?
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1. mixdup ◴[] No.44393175[source]
how much of the value chain was actually in the US back then, and, how much could feasibly move to the US?

Even in the 90s, major components were made in Taiwan and Japan. And since that time, the US ability to make what we did previously has atrophied

What do we really get out of Dell moving PC manufacturing to the US if every single part they consume was manufactured in China or Taiwan? Final assembly is the lowest value part of the equation. Apple already did this shell game with the Mac Pro a few years ago and it didn't last long nor did it have a meaningful impact on anything other than the price of the product