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America’s incarceration rate is in decline

(www.theatlantic.com)
255 points paulpauper | 2 comments | 25 Jun 25 17:14 UTC | HN request time: 0.45s | source
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casenmgreen ◴[25 Jun 25 18:01 UTC] No.44380132[source]▶
Freakonomics argued that crime correlates to whether or not abortion is available.

If it is not, crime rates are up, and by a lot.

If it is, crime rates are down.

When you flip from one to the other, takes about 15/20 years for the effect to show up.

Rationale is that forcing parents to have their kids when they're not ready for them significantly increases delinquency in young adults.

This is apparently the only possible theory at the moment. It's not proven, of course, but the other theories which were given have been found lacking. This is the only theory which has some evidence, and hasn't been found to be wrong.

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jjcob ◴[25 Jun 25 18:17 UTC] No.44380312[source]▶
I doubt there is a single explanation. I think it's multiple factors.

Unleaded gasoline could also be a factor. Every country has shown drops in crime rates when leaded gasoline was phased out.

If I recall, leaded gasoline was phased out in the 80ies, which fits a drop in crime rates in the 90ies.

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leptons ◴[25 Jun 25 18:33 UTC] No.44380477[source]▶
Availability of pornography has cut down the rate of rapes significantly. Too bad the republicans are going to try to ban all porn pretty soon, according to their stated agenda. They do love their wealthy donors that run the prison-industrial-complex.
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Spivak ◴[25 Jun 25 23:34 UTC] No.44382796[source]▶
This would be a good theory if it was supported at all by data. There has been a decrease but if you squint it's a flat line. The best you can really say is that the availability of pornography is neutral.
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leptons ◴[26 Jun 25 08:45 UTC] No.44385460[source]▶
I have seen the data that suggests strongly that pornography lowers rapes. You've put up no data to refute that, so until you do I will continue believing the data I saw. If you do put up some actual data to support your claims (instead of just saying "nuh uhh"), I'll review it and then provide my own.
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jrflowers ◴[26 Jun 25 14:54 UTC] No.44388052[source]▶
Can you share that data
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1. leptons ◴[26 Jun 25 16:52 UTC] No.44389115[source]▶
There are numerous articles all over the internet both supporting my claim, as well as negating it, depending on the agenda of the source - there are many people that are morally opposed to porn that would want my claim to be false (and they would still want to ban porn even if that increases rape). Here's some articles that support:

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-sunny-side-of...

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/11/101130111326.h...

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/all-about-sex/201601...

The data I saw, probably about 20 years ago...

https://qph.cf2.quoracdn.net/main-qimg-d6f248400fd5308b6d5d0...

I can't verify the source since this data is 20 years old and I can't remember where it came from, but at the time it seemed like a good enough source, and this was before "truth" lost all meaning in the age of the conservative-bent "my feelings are as good as your facts" world we currently live in.

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2. jrflowers ◴[26 Jun 25 18:34 UTC] No.44390031[source]▶
The rate of homicides and other violent crime have also declined significantly over the same period, so unless you contend that pornography also caused that, the data shows that it does not increase the rate of rape.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/homicide-rate-1990-vs-202...