> Do you think that the cost of tokens will remain low enough once these companies for now operating at loss have to be profitable, and it really is going to be “anyone else”? Or, would it be limited to “big tech” or select few corporations who can pay a non-trivial amount of money to them?
When considering current models, it's not in their power to prevent it:
DeepSeek demonstrated big models could be trained very easily for a modest budget, and inference is mostly constrained by memory access rather than compute, so if we had smartphones with a terabyte of RAM with a very high bandwidth to something like a current generation Apple NPU, things like DeepSeek R1 would run locally at (back-of-the-envelope calculation) about real-time — and drain the battery in half an hour if you used that model continuously.
But current models are not good enough, so the real question is: "who will hold what power when such models hypothetically are created?", and I have absolutely no idea.
> Do you think someone would create and make public (and gather so much contributor effort) something on the scale Linux, if they knew that it would be open to be scraped by an intermediary who can sell it at whatever price they choose to set to companies that then are free to call it their own and repackage commercially without contributing back, providing their source or crediting the original authors in any way?
Consider it differently: how much would it cost to use an LLM to reproduce all of Linux?
I previously rough-estimated that at $230/megatoken of (useful final product) output, an AI would be energy-competitive vs. humans consuming calories to live: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44304186
As I don't have specifics, I need to Fermi-estimate this:
I'm not actually sure how big any OS (with or without apps) is, but I hear a lot of numbers in the range of 10-50 million. Let's say 50 Mloc.
I don't know the tokens per line, I'm going to guess 10.
50e6 lines * 10 tokens/line * $230/(1e6 tokens) = $115,000
There's no fundamental reason for $230/megatoken beyond that's when the AI is economically preferable to feeding a human who is doing it for free and you just need to stop them from starving to death, even if you have figured out how to directly metabolise electricity which is much cheaper than food: on the one hand $230, this is on the very expensive end of current models; on the second hand, see previous point about running DeepSeek R1 on phone processor with more RAM and bandwidth to match; on the third hand*, see other previous point that current models just aren't good enough to bother.
So it's current not available at any price, but when the quality is good, even charging a rate that's currently expensive makes all humans unemployable.
* Insert your own joke about about off-by-one-errors