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America’s incarceration rate is in decline

(www.theatlantic.com)
271 points paulpauper | 7 comments | 25 Jun 25 17:14 UTC | HN request time: 0.742s | source | bottom
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strict9 ◴[25 Jun 25 17:54 UTC] No.44380047[source]▶
>Rapidly declining numbers of youth are committing crimes, getting arrested, and being incarcerated. This matters because young offenders are the raw material that feeds the prison system: As one generation ages out, another takes its place on the same horrid journey.

Another factor which will soon impact this, if it isn't already, is the rapidly changing nature of youth. Fertility rates have been dropping since 2009 or so. Average age of parents is increasing. Teen pregnancy on a long and rapid decline.

All of these working together means that each year the act of having a child is much more deliberate and the parents likely having more resources. Which in turn should mean fewer youth delinquency, which as the article notes is how most in prison started out.

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dcow ◴[26 Jun 25 04:07 UTC] No.44384109[source]▶
We may have swung the pendulum a little too far towards deliberate, though. The birthrate right now is below replacement rate, meaning that if we keep going like this (even if the birthrate doesn't keep trending down and holds steady) that society will die off. We need to figure out how to build an economy and society that can facilitate deliberate responsible parentage younger and more often. Luckily we have generations to solve the problem, but it’s there looming.
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1. solatic ◴[26 Jun 25 06:07 UTC] No.44384609[source]▶
Or, you continue to grow the population through immigration.

The US is unique (or maybe there are a handful of others, I don't know) in its ability to welcome immigrants who, within two generations, largely see themselves as Americans first and not as the identity of their grandparents. American identity politics has eroded this somewhat but it is still largely true, for example, that grandchildren of immigrants will usually have a very poor grasp of their grandparents' native languages.

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2. kfajdsl ◴[26 Jun 25 06:44 UTC] No.44384806[source]▶
This doesn't work forever. The birth rates in developing countries are also falling.
3. achillesheels ◴[26 Jun 25 14:54 UTC] No.44388050[source]▶
I disagree. Immigration suppresses wages. Which suppresses native born childmaking, which fuels more government charity, erm, welfare, which dampens productivity, which erodes civil liberties.

American is not seen as promoting human rights, and to infer all immigrants are good is naive, hate to get off my porch about this. sits back down on rocking chair whistling “I Wish I was In Dixie” and widdling a hangman with the noose almost finished, just a few more threads

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4. hylaride ◴[26 Jun 25 16:13 UTC] No.44388790[source]▶
> Immigration suppresses wages. Which suppresses native born childmaking, which fuels more government charity, erm, welfare, which dampens productivity, which erodes civil liberties.

Japan and Korea have almost no immigration and abysmally low birth rates. Your arguments don't really hold water. Having children is actually more of a burden on the state, as those kids need schools, (in most western countries publicly funded) healthcare, etc. Taking in a healthy immigrant at 20 is better almost all round from a purely economic point of view.

And immigration doesn't suppress wages any more or less than having tons of kids would over the long term. A person "taking" a job is still a taking a person whether they were born or immigrated. This is ignoring the fact that more people over time enlarge the economy and opportunity in it. Would the United States be a better country today if it didn't accept the mass immigration from Italy, Ireland, and Eastern Europe between 1850-1914 and had 1/4 the population?

5. jimbokun ◴[26 Jun 25 19:46 UTC] No.44390621[source]▶
Declining fertility is a global phenomenon.
6. dcow ◴[27 Jun 25 05:30 UTC] No.44393935[source]▶
This only works if you indoctrinate. I’d say the current US phenomenon is something between raw relocation and true indoctrination. The entire point of my comment was related to maintaining the society we all enjoy (not FUD about some zero population earth as it was construed). If you progressively and move other people into your society but they don’t share your core values then your society dies. If you indoctrinate and accept only those who share your values, then your society can sustain. I’m talking basics like shared desire to respect and uphold a constitution, having a language everyone is expected to know to perform civic functions, equal playing field for both wages and taxes. I’m not saying societies shouldn’t evolve. I’m suggesting that there is a difference between thoughtful social progress and feeling like an alien in your own city.
7. ngold ◴[27 Jun 25 07:19 UTC] No.44394468[source]▶
So you hate the statue of liberty and America?