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America’s incarceration rate is in decline

(www.theatlantic.com)
236 points paulpauper | 3 comments | 25 Jun 25 17:14 UTC | HN request time: 0.64s | source
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strict9 ◴[25 Jun 25 17:54 UTC] No.44380047[source]▶
>Rapidly declining numbers of youth are committing crimes, getting arrested, and being incarcerated. This matters because young offenders are the raw material that feeds the prison system: As one generation ages out, another takes its place on the same horrid journey.

Another factor which will soon impact this, if it isn't already, is the rapidly changing nature of youth. Fertility rates have been dropping since 2009 or so. Average age of parents is increasing. Teen pregnancy on a long and rapid decline.

All of these working together means that each year the act of having a child is much more deliberate and the parents likely having more resources. Which in turn should mean fewer youth delinquency, which as the article notes is how most in prison started out.

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1. naasking ◴[26 Jun 25 01:19 UTC] No.44383374[source]▶
> All of these working together means that each year the act of having a child is much more deliberate and the parents likely having more resources. Which in turn should mean fewer youth delinquency, which as the article notes is how most in prison started out.

Or the less popular more controversial hypothesis: the steepest decline in births is among the poor, a population with, on average, worse impulse control and more issues with mental health, and since all qualities are at least partly heritable...

Surprisingly, the fertility rate among the affluent does not appear to be nearly as impacted.

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2. andsoitis ◴[26 Jun 25 06:54 UTC] No.44384873[source]▶
> the steepest decline in births is among the poor, a population with, on average, worse impulse control and more issues with mental health, and since all qualities are at least partly heritable... Surprisingly, the fertility rate among the affluent does not appear to be nearly as impacted.

Generally, fertility rates are higher among poorer populations compared to wealthier populations. This pattern is observed both at the national level, with poorer countries generally having higher fertility rates than wealthier ones, and at the individual level, with poorer families tending to have more children than wealthier families.

https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2016/december/link...

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3. naasking ◴[26 Jun 25 14:17 UTC] No.44387679[source]▶
> Generally, fertility rates are higher among poorer populations compared to wealthier populations.

Yes, but they were even higher in the past. Fertility has declined among the poorer classes much more than among higher income classes, probably due to the availability of contraceptives and abortion:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Gs5lgb_bIAAYoo1?format=jpg