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America’s incarceration rate is in decline

(www.theatlantic.com)
236 points paulpauper | 1 comments | 25 Jun 25 17:14 UTC | HN request time: 0.262s | source
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outside1234 ◴[25 Jun 25 17:48 UTC] No.44379986[source]▶
Crime is also way down over the last 20 years:

https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/04/24/what-the-...

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WalterBright ◴[25 Jun 25 18:30 UTC] No.44380451[source]▶
At least in Seattle, crime is "way down" because many businesses have stopped reporting it, because the police don't respond to less serious crimes anymore.

A shopkeeper friend of mine closed his business in Seattle after multiple lootings of his place and the police never showing up. He relocated to a bedroom community.

Crime statistics are not necessarily accurate, and politicians have an interest in minimizing those statistics one way or another.

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energywut ◴[25 Jun 25 23:31 UTC] No.44382781[source]▶
You have any data to support that? I've lived in Seattle for 40 years, and crime here is way less of a concern now than it ever has been. Especially violent crime.

My experience also seems to match statistics. So, it would seem that your friend's experience might be the outlier -- I'm not saying they are wrong, I'm saying their experience doesn't match the data and there's at least one anecdote (mine) that runs counter to their anecdote. Seems like a good opportunity to try and find data that supports your hypothesis?

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mensetmanusman ◴[26 Jun 25 00:25 UTC] No.44383094[source]▶
“Data on the things that no one is reporting”
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1. energywut ◴[26 Jun 25 00:35 UTC] No.44383138[source]▶
Don't be facile.

Police reports aren't the only source of data. If this was a widespread impact then there would be other sources of data that could be used to build this case.

Additionally, we cannot make policy decisions on "just trust me, my friend said...". Maybe we can't get a perfect signal, but if you are going to challenge the prevailing data, I expect you to bring something novel beyond vibes. It doesn't have to be perfect, but a single anecdote plus "I believe it" is not sufficient to oppose what the data we do have is consistently saying -- crime is lower in Seattle, and has been consistently lowering over time.