America’s incarceration rate is in decline

The Atlantic suggests this results from the release of those convicted during a decades long crime wave, which apprently took place when many of us grew up. Perhaps it also tracks with a progressive decline in law enforcement. Whether that is because crime waves not longer exist or whether it is some other reason is a question for the reader. A substanbtial amount of crime is now done via internet. Few are ever convicted.

Marijuana possession was the number one crime and is now legal in a majority of states. This seems like the high-order bit.

^ This. The drug war was an attempt for conservatives to punish poor people for using a harmless drug (marijuana) to help cope with systemic inequality, and kids for wanting to have fun.

From 1950-1970, America introduced new mandatory minimums for possession of marijuana. First-time offenses carried a minimum of 2-10 yrs in prison and a fine of up to $20,000. They repealed these minimums in 1970 because it did jack shit to stop people smoking. The govt even recommended decriminalizing marijuana in 1970, but Nixon rejected it.

But then came The Parents. As fucking usual, parents "concerned for their children" began a years-long lobbying and marketing effort to convince the public any kind of drug was evil and harming kids. Through the 1980s their lobbying spread to all corners of the government, influencing messaging and policy. So finally in 1986, Reagan introduced new mandatory minimums for marijuana, based on amount. Having 100 marijuana plants was the same crime as 100 grams of heroin. And then they went further; if you we caught with marijuana three times, you got a life sentence. Life. For pot. In 1989, Bush Sr. officially declared the "new" War on Drugs. And we've all been paying for it ever since.

At what point in the last 30 years did cannabis possession account for even a plurality of incarcerated persons, in any state or federally?

Cannabis is not the high order bit.

Crime is also down compared to where it was if you ask people directly [0].

[0]: https://ncvs.bjs.ojp.gov/multi-year-trends/crimeType

Of course it does. The framing is from the establishment. The surge in crime and rise in prison population is because we criminalized existence EG "the war on drugs". Now we're getting rid of some of the worse things.

Well apparently 43% of American inmates are incarcerated for drug related offenses. https://www.bop.gov/about/statistics/statistics_inmate_offen...

This article claims that about 32k people in 2021 were for cannabis related offense, and simply carrying that to today would be 23% of the prison population: the largest offense type. https://www.lastprisonerproject.org/cannabis-prisoner-scale

How do the two sets of states compare on crime rates since the change?

32,000 people is about 1% of all those incarcerated.

Good grief. There should be a federal law against that much Google Javascript and tracking on a government website without offering a non-Google, no-JS alternative.

https://bjs.ojp.gov/data-collection/ncvs

https://ncvs.bjs.ojp.gov/data/custom-graphics/person/all_all...

The NCVS measures self-reported victims not convicts.

It does not measure criminal charges, convictions or imprisonment.

The NCVS is only focused on a subset of crimes, some of which do not carry prison sentences. For example, it excludes drug offences. It excludes manslaughter and homicide. It excludes financial crimes.

The survey is only given to census recipients, i.e., households and individuals. Non-residential addresses are not included. It only targets a subset of crime victims.

Perhaps better sources to look at would be UCR, SRS and NIBRS.

It is absolutely bonkers to me this ever was a crime. I don't like the stuff but where I am from it was basically like smoking (which now no one does anymore); seeing people getting prison time really, at that time, made me think 'land of the free, my ass'.

It is not a harmless drug though. Less harmless than most others, but not harmless.