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Early US Intel assessment suggests strikes on Iran did not destroy nuclear sites

(www.cnn.com)
122 points jbegley | 2 comments | 24 Jun 25 19:04 UTC | HN request time: 0.481s | source
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cluckindan ◴[24 Jun 25 19:26 UTC] No.44369995[source]▶
You don’t need to be a genius to figure out that centrifuges installed 70–80 meters underground will be largely unaffected by bombs which are believed to have an effect down to a depth of 60 meters.
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everfrustrated ◴[24 Jun 25 19:49 UTC] No.44370297[source]▶
How they going to get to them?
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1. cjbgkagh ◴[24 Jun 25 20:05 UTC] No.44370462[source]▶
Nukes or ground invasion, the point of the attack wasn’t to knock out the facilities, it was so that Trump can be dragged along ‘reluctantly’ so he can sell the conflict to his base. It is a persuasion technique called mirroring. Trump mirrors the position of the anti-war base, then slowly piece by piece he changes his position bringing his base with him. I guess how far it’ll go will depend on how effective the state is at suppressing anti-war sentiment. If history is a guide then the state can be surprisingly effective at this.
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2. ethbr1 ◴[25 Jun 25 20:24 UTC] No.44381504[source]▶
Polling of independents at 60/40 against should scare the shit out of the GOP, if they intend to press this.

I expect there is no desire on Trump's part for a long game, and he just took an isolated opportunity (Iranian air defenses smashed and air force suppressed) to wave the flag and look militaristic.

Limiting the strike to nuclear facilities also provides deniability to Iranian civilians that, unlike Israel, the US isn't looking for a full scale war.