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Early US Intel assessment suggests strikes on Iran did not destroy nuclear sites

(www.cnn.com)
122 points jbegley | 9 comments | 24 Jun 25 19:04 UTC | HN request time: 0.001s | source | bottom
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cluckindan ◴[24 Jun 25 19:26 UTC] No.44369995[source]▶
You don’t need to be a genius to figure out that centrifuges installed 70–80 meters underground will be largely unaffected by bombs which are believed to have an effect down to a depth of 60 meters.
replies(8): >>44370297 #>>44370428 #>>44370451 #>>44370592 #>>44370714 #>>44371331 #>>44372376 #>>44375665 #
1. barbazoo ◴[24 Jun 25 20:04 UTC] No.44370451[source]▶
If they haven't removed the sensitive stuff before anyway after someone suggested they will make a decision within two weeks whether to attack.
replies(2): >>44371079 #>>44371659 #
2. votepaunchy ◴[24 Jun 25 21:07 UTC] No.44371079[source]▶
This has been repeated so many times but the enriched uranium is far more vulnerable in transport.
replies(2): >>44371931 #>>44385421 #
3. bitsage ◴[24 Jun 25 22:20 UTC] No.44371659[source]▶
I find this argument hard to believe. Israel had complete air superiority for a week and was monitoring all the sites, routinely hitting the above ground nuclear facilities. I’m skeptical Iran could transfer anything significant from Fordow and not be immediately spotted by Israel.
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4. barbazoo ◴[24 Jun 25 22:52 UTC] No.44371900[source]▶
> The report also found that much of Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium that could be put to use for a possible nuclear weapon was moved before the strikes and may have been moved to other secret nuclear sites maintained by Iran.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jun/24/iran-strikes-n...

replies(1): >>44372137 #
5. barbazoo ◴[24 Jun 25 22:55 UTC] No.44371931[source]▶
> The report also found that much of Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium that could be put to use for a possible nuclear weapon was moved before the strikes and may have been moved to other secret nuclear sites maintained by Iran.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jun/24/iran-strikes-n...

6. bitsage ◴[24 Jun 25 23:23 UTC] No.44372137{3}[source]▶
I still consider the main report to not be substantiated. Israel claims that they know where the stockpile is and that they have been monitoring sites[1][2]. Some official even claimed it’s mostly under the rubble. Not sure why one is to believed and the other not when neither have hard evidence.

1. https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-858895 2. https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-858619

7. bamboozled ◴[25 Jun 25 02:12 UTC] No.44373077[source]▶
Feel the same, not to mention Israel would have spies in Iran, satellites all over it.
8. belter ◴[25 Jun 25 10:38 UTC] No.44375706[source]▶
Israel could not spot hundreds of Hamas terrorists rehearsing the 7 of October attacks, and using cell phones for weeks, 20 miles from their Urim base in the Negev desert. [1]

Or could they? ;-)

[1] - https://mondediplo.com/2010/09/04israelbase

9. cwillu ◴[26 Jun 25 08:37 UTC] No.44385421[source]▶
Most modern goods are valuable and hard to replace because of their mechanical or chemical properties, and so blowing them up destroys the value.

My understanding is that U-235 is not like that, blowing it up accomplishes very little when recovery consists of what they'd already be doing to clear the debris, plus some mechanical and chemical separation.