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The "AI 2027" Scenario: How realistic is it?

(garymarcus.substack.com)
129 points NotInOurNames | 1 comments | 22 May 25 17:37 UTC | HN request time: 0.208s | source
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jmccambridge ◴[22 May 25 20:11 UTC] No.44066335[source]▶
I found the lack of GDP projections surprising, because they are readily observable and would offer a clear measure of economic impact (up until 'everything dies') - far more definitively than the one clear-cut economic measure that is given in the report: market cap for the leading AI firm.

We can actually offer a very conservative threshold bet: maximum annual United States real GDP growth will not exceed 10% for any of the next five years (2025 to 2030). Even if the AI eats us all in e.g., Dec 2027 the report clearly suggests by it's various examples that we will see measurable economic impact in the 12 months or more running up to that event.

Why 10%? Because that's a few points above the highest measured real GDP growth rate of the past 60 years: if AI is having truly world-shattering non-linear effects, it should be able to grow the US economy a bit faster than a bunch of random humans bumbling along. [0]

(And it's quite conservative too, because estimated peak annual real GDP growth over the past 100 years is around 18% just after WW2, where you had a bunch of random humans trying very hard.) [1]

[0] https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG

[1] https://www.statista.com/statistics/996758/rea-gdp-growth-un...

replies(1): >>44068599 #
1. tuatoru ◴[23 May 25 00:30 UTC] No.44068599[source]▶
I spent several years studying economics and I don't get the GDP growth predictions at all. To a first approximation, GDP (in the west) is household consumption.

The value prop for AI seems to be "will put millions out of work". That reduces household consumption, because, to a first approximation again, household spending is wages. We'll know we're in AI takeoff when we have a reduction in GDP, one much bigger than the Great Depression of 1929 - 1939, attributable to automation.

Edit: I see Kaiserpro said the same thing six hours ago.