The "AI 2027" Scenario: How realistic is it?

Its a shame that your standard futurologist always the most fancyful.

Talks of exponentials unabated by physics or social problems.

As soon as AI starts to "properly" affect the economy, it will cause huge unemployment. Most of the financial world is based on an economy with people spending cash.

If they are unemployed, there is no cash.

Financing works because banks "print" money, that is, they make up money and loan that money out, and then it gets paid back. Once its paid back, it becomes real. Thats how banks make money (simplified) If there aren’t people to loan to, then banks don't make profit, they can't fund AI expansion.

Why wouldn't AI simply be a new enabler, like most other tools? We're not talking about true sentient human-like thought here, these things will have limitations, both foreseen and unforeseen, that only a human will be able to close the gap on.

The companies that fire workers and replace them with AI are short sighted. Eventually, smarter companies will realize its a force multiplier and will drive a hiring boom.

Absent sentient AI, there will always be gaps and things humans will need to fill, both foreseen and unforeseen.

I think in the short term, there will be pain, but overall in the long term, humans will still be gainfully employed, it won't per se look like it does now, much like we saw the general adoption of the computer in the workplace, resources get shifted and eventually everyone adjusts to the new norms.

What would be nice is this time around when there is a big shift, is workers uniting to capture more of the forthcoming productivity gains than in previous eras. A separate topic, worth thinking about none the less.