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The great displacement is already well underway?

(shawnfromportland.substack.com)
511 points JSLegendDev | 1 comments | | HN request time: 1.885s | source
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pclmulqdq ◴[] No.43976838[source]
I have heard from doctors and lawyers that there comes a time in your career when people are no longer interested in people who are older and unremarkable. In many ways it is worse to be a mediocre senior engineer at 45 than a naive junior at 20. You are expensive and you have shown that you have a ceiling.

It sucks that this perception attaches to people at this point in their career. Many become managers at this point because that's an easy way to have broader impact and show career growth when you don't _really_ care about engineering.

If you have spent 20 years as a software engineer amassing wealth (3 houses) and not making significant contributions to your peers or the field, everyone knows where your priorities are. It's okay that you aren't that interested in engineering. It does mean that it's harder to get a job than someone who really is, especially in tight markets. You're also not going to find employment below your level because they know you're going to jump ship when the market shifts. It does mean lowering your standards on certain things, like the "100% remote" requirement.

For the last 20 years, there has been tremendous demand for software engineers that has allowed people to coast. That demand is cooling down for a variety of reasons, AI being one of them (but IMO not anywhere near the most significant). That cool-down really started in ~2021-2022 and really hasn't picked back up. When the market cools down, the unremarkable old-timers are sadly the first ones to be shown the door.

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TrackerFF ◴[] No.43983885[source]
I just want to comment that the trend where "average" workers pushing 50 are undesirable, is a very scary one. And it should be for everyone.

Any present day 45-year old must assume that they will have to work AT LEAST 20 more years, but most likely 25. This generation will be working well into their 70s.

Statistically, the majority will be average - or "mediocre".

Economically, it is very unsustainable to have a system where only the top 20%-30% of people over 50 will be able to keep their job. You'll end up with a very large number of people that end up on welfare, or unable to spend money like the modern society is designed (less spending, less revenue for companies).

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1. ericmcer ◴[] No.43996829[source]
I wonder if the heavy ageism was more a one time thing. The entire tech industry blew up in the late 90s early 2000s and all of a sudden 20 year olds were handed endless VC money, of course they biased towards people their age when hiring. That isn't going to happen again, the huge players are established and founders are generally older. I started in 2012 and the same people who hired me when I was 20 are still around and are going to naturally bias towards people in their own range.

If anything I predict the ageism will be against young people, where anyone who got significant experience from 2000-2020 will be desired because they worked through those foundational years and never leveraged AI. Meanwhile a 22 year old who scraped through a CS degree will be viewed a bit dubiously.