←back to thread

The great displacement is already well underway?

(shawnfromportland.substack.com)
511 points JSLegendDev | 4 comments | | HN request time: 0.846s | source
Show context
pclmulqdq ◴[] No.43976838[source]
I have heard from doctors and lawyers that there comes a time in your career when people are no longer interested in people who are older and unremarkable. In many ways it is worse to be a mediocre senior engineer at 45 than a naive junior at 20. You are expensive and you have shown that you have a ceiling.

It sucks that this perception attaches to people at this point in their career. Many become managers at this point because that's an easy way to have broader impact and show career growth when you don't _really_ care about engineering.

If you have spent 20 years as a software engineer amassing wealth (3 houses) and not making significant contributions to your peers or the field, everyone knows where your priorities are. It's okay that you aren't that interested in engineering. It does mean that it's harder to get a job than someone who really is, especially in tight markets. You're also not going to find employment below your level because they know you're going to jump ship when the market shifts. It does mean lowering your standards on certain things, like the "100% remote" requirement.

For the last 20 years, there has been tremendous demand for software engineers that has allowed people to coast. That demand is cooling down for a variety of reasons, AI being one of them (but IMO not anywhere near the most significant). That cool-down really started in ~2021-2022 and really hasn't picked back up. When the market cools down, the unremarkable old-timers are sadly the first ones to be shown the door.

replies(10): >>43977533 #>>43977957 #>>43978158 #>>43978217 #>>43978245 #>>43978517 #>>43982774 #>>43983885 #>>43984232 #>>43992084 #
shawnfrompdx ◴[] No.43977533[source]
just for reference about my amassed 'wealth', the combined cost of my mortgages is less than a studio apartment's rent in the bay area. i left the west coast for precisely this reason
replies(2): >>43977835 #>>43980743 #
s1artibartfast ◴[] No.43977835[source]
property values are wealth. mortgage payments are costs. one doesn't imply anything about the other.

Are the properties underwater on the mortgage?

Can you rent out the vacant units?

replies(1): >>43977960 #
1. shawnfrompdx ◴[] No.43977960[source]
if you read the original article i talked about how i got into this position. I originally had renters at both properties covering almost all the costs. they left shortly before losing my job.
replies(1): >>43979040 #
2. s1artibartfast ◴[] No.43979040[source]
I read it, but maybe I missed the details. Are they rented out now and can they be?
replies(1): >>43979175 #
3. shawnfrompdx ◴[] No.43979175[source]
i gave it a 1-year shot at running the cabin as an airbnb, but it is only profitable the peak couple of months a year because we are extremely remote with very harsh winters. i feel a bit stuck under that until the end of this year because i have a bunch of guests booked and i would hate to rugpull them in order to transition it back to a long-term rental. I do believe with more time and money it could be a profitable short-term rental. my county just rolled out a 4% tax on airbnbs for no reason, which hurts. the city house would be income producing with another 30k$ of renovations, but in it's current state (i ran out of money on the renovations) it is half-rented, covering the operating cost.
replies(1): >>43979549 #
4. s1artibartfast ◴[] No.43979549{3}[source]
can you fill the city house completely? Why push for short term rental in the cabins instead of long term?

It seems like getting those two sorted would greatly improve your monthly situation.

going back to the wealth thing, I recommend you think of these places as assets, not set in stone. If you are ahead on your mortgage, they literally are, slow to sell but worth real cash.