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'We Currently Have No Container Ships,' Seattle Port Says

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232 points pseudolus | 4 comments | 10 May 25 15:49 UTC | HN request time: 0s | source
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banku_brougham ◴[10 May 25 20:14 UTC] No.43948598[source]▶
Huge amount of discussion in this thread neglects the idea that a massive increase in tariffs will throttle trade shipments. Its the obvious expected effect.
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fallingknife ◴[10 May 25 20:22 UTC] No.43948674[source]▶
That's obvious. I think the question is more one of how long will they be throttled for? Even if there was a domestic or foreign nontariffed supplier for 100% of the goods in question it would still take significant lead time for the new orders to be filled and even more for cases where capacity needs to be increased.
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1. theturtletalks ◴[10 May 25 21:16 UTC] No.43949065[source]▶
No one knows, it’s a game of chicken. Will the suppliers eat the tariff cost if they start losing market share? Will consumers just pay the extra cost if they really need the item?

If the latter happens, will a domestic company come in and undercut the international sellers?

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2. pan69 ◴[10 May 25 21:35 UTC] No.43949195[source]▶
If the suppliers decide that it's not worth the risk of letting the consumer to decide to pay the passed on tariff then there simply is no consumer choice.

There needs to exist a domestic supplier to be able to fill the gap. My guess is that for many products, there simply isn't one.

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3. habinero ◴[10 May 25 22:42 UTC] No.43949617[source]▶
Yeah, standing up a new factory will take five years and hundreds of millions of dollars.

Larger businesses like Apple will cut deals. Smaller businesses will just fold.

4. lurkshark ◴[10 May 25 23:08 UTC] No.43949750[source]▶
The on-again-off-again of the tariffs throws another wrench in there. It would be a big gamble to start building a domestic factory right now because you don’t know if the tariffs are going to stick around long enough to make it worth it. Plus you still have the issue of tariffs on imported materials cutting away at any potential margin.