Seems premature, like measuring the economic impact of the internet in 1985.
LLMs are more tech demo than product right now, and it could take many years for their full impact to become apparent.
replies(2):
LLMs are more tech demo than product right now, and it could take many years for their full impact to become apparent.
> I think we will be there in three to six months, where AI is writing 90% of the code. And then, in 12 months, we may be in a world where AI is writing essentially all of the code
https://www.businessinsider.com/anthropic-ceo-ai-90-percent-...
This seems either wildly optimistic or comes with a giant asterisk that AI will write it by token predicting, then a human will have to double check and refine it.
I won't deny that LLMs can be useful--I still use them--but in my experience an LLM's success rate in writing working code is somewhere around 50%. That leads to a productivity boost that, while not negative, isn't anywhere near the wild numbers that are bandied about.