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Large language models, small labor market effects [pdf]

(bfi.uchicago.edu)
141 points luu | 3 comments | 25 Apr 25 08:15 UTC | HN request time: 0.644s | source
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Legend2440 ◴[25 Apr 25 18:31 UTC] No.43797047[source]▶
Seems premature, like measuring the economic impact of the internet in 1985.

LLMs are more tech demo than product right now, and it could take many years for their full impact to become apparent.

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amarcheschi ◴[25 Apr 25 18:57 UTC] No.43797341[source]▶
I wouldn't call "premature" when llm companies ceos have been proposing ai agents for replacing workers - and similar things that I find debatable - in about the 2nd half of the twenties. I mean, a cold shower might eventually happen for a lot of Ai based companies
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dehrmann ◴[25 Apr 25 21:30 UTC] No.43798723[source]▶
The most recent example is the Anthropic CEO:

> I think we will be there in three to six months, where AI is writing 90% of the code. And then, in 12 months, we may be in a world where AI is writing essentially all of the code

https://www.businessinsider.com/anthropic-ceo-ai-90-percent-...

This seems either wildly optimistic or comes with a giant asterisk that AI will write it by token predicting, then a human will have to double check and refine it.

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1. agumonkey ◴[25 Apr 25 22:01 UTC] No.43798940[source]▶
I anticipate a control issue, where agents can produce code faster than people can analyze and beside applications with small visible surfaces, nobody will be able to check what is going on

I saw people with trouble manipulating boolean tables of 3 variables in their head trying to generate complete web applications, it will work for linear duties (input -> processing -> storage) but I highly doubt they will be able to understand anything with 2nd order effects

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2. tylerrobinson ◴[26 Apr 25 13:10 UTC] No.43803291[source]▶
> people with trouble manipulating boolean tables of 3 variables in their head

To be fair, 3 booleans (2^3=8) is more working memory than most people are productive with. Way more if they’re nullable :)

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3. agumonkey ◴[26 Apr 25 15:39 UTC] No.43804537[source]▶
Really feels like a race to the bottom to me. You used to have a trade that made you try to master those 8 configurations and now you're acting like the ignorant manager asking "agents" to deal with it.