Large language models, small labor market effects [pdf]

Seems premature, like measuring the economic impact of the internet in 1985.

LLMs are more tech demo than product right now, and it could take many years for their full impact to become apparent.

I wouldn't call "premature" when llm companies ceos have been proposing ai agents for replacing workers - and similar things that I find debatable - in about the 2nd half of the twenties. I mean, a cold shower might eventually happen for a lot of Ai based companies

The most recent example is the Anthropic CEO:

> I think we will be there in three to six months, where AI is writing 90% of the code. And then, in 12 months, we may be in a world where AI is writing essentially all of the code

https://www.businessinsider.com/anthropic-ceo-ai-90-percent-...

This seems either wildly optimistic or comes with a giant asterisk that AI will write it by token predicting, then a human will have to double check and refine it.