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Large language models, small labor market effects [pdf]

(bfi.uchicago.edu)
141 points luu | 3 comments | 25 Apr 25 08:15 UTC | HN request time: 0.693s | source
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Legend2440 ◴[25 Apr 25 18:31 UTC] No.43797047[source]▶
Seems premature, like measuring the economic impact of the internet in 1985.

LLMs are more tech demo than product right now, and it could take many years for their full impact to become apparent.

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1. layoric ◴[25 Apr 25 20:56 UTC] No.43798428[source]▶
A big difference here is the sheer scale of investment. In 1985, the internet was running on the dreams of a few. The sheer depth of investment in "AI" currently is hard to fathom, and being injected into everything regardless of what customers want.
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2. Legend2440 ◴[25 Apr 25 23:31 UTC] No.43799453[source]▶
That's because the tech industry has more money than god and nothing better to do with it.

Microsoft alone has half a trillion dollars in assets, and Apple/Google/Meta/Amazon are in similar financial positions. Spending a few tens of billions on datacenters is, as crazy as it sounds, nothing to them.

3. no_wizard ◴[26 Apr 25 00:02 UTC] No.43799648[source]▶
While ARPANET itself reportedly cost somewhere between 10 - 20 million USD, which is relatively cheap, the precursor research that allowed the internet to take off - which is directed more at general computing and advanced computer networks, the telecommunications investments - cost many billions of dollars, it was mostly public money is the biggest difference.

That said, private companies are pumping alot of money into this space, but technological progress is a peaks and valley situation. I imagine most of the money will ultimately move the needle very little following things of dubious hindsight value