Large language models, small labor market effects [pdf]

Interesting study! Far too early in the adoption lifecycle for any conclusions I think, especially given that the data is from Denmark which tends to be have a far less hype-driven business culture than the US going by my bit of experience working in both. Anecdotally, I've seen a couple of AI hiring freezes in the states (some from LLM integrations I've built) that I'm fairly sure will be reversed when management gets a more realistic sense of capabilities, and my general sense is that the Danes I've worked with would be far less likely to overestimate the value of these tools.

I agree on the "far too early" part. But imo we can probably say more about the impact in a year though, not 5-10 years. But it does show that some of the randomized-controlled-trials that showed large labor-force impact and productivity gains are probably only applicable to a small sub-section of the work-force.

It also looks like the second survey was sent out in June 2024 - so the data is 10 months old at this point, another reason why this it might be early.

That said, the latest round of models are the first I've started using more extensively.

The paper does address the fact that Denmark is not the US, but supposedly not that different:

"First, Danish workers have been at the forefront of Generative AI adoption, with take-up rates comparable to those in the United States (Bick, Blandin and Deming, 2025; Humlum and Vestergaard, 2025; RISJ, 2024).

Second, Denmark’s labor market is highly flexible, with low hiring and firing costs and decentralized wage bargaining—similar to that of the U.S.—which allows firms and workers to adjust hours and earnings in response to technological change (Botero et al., 2004; Dahl, Le Maire and Munch, 2013). In particular, most workers in our sample engage in annual negotiations with their employers, providing regular opportunities to adjust earnings and hours in response to AI chatbot adoption during the study period."