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America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

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842 points putzdown | 1 comments | 15 Apr 25 13:50 UTC | HN request time: 0.001s | source
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mppm ◴[15 Apr 25 14:12 UTC] No.43692983[source]▶
Jonathan Blow's "Preventing the collapse of civilization" [1] makes a similar point. It is easy to assume that, if we can build EUV machines and space telescopes, then processing stainless steel and manufacturing PCBs is baby stuff, and is just waiting for the proper incentives to spring up again. Unfortunately that is not the case -- reality has a surprising amount of detail [2] and even medium-level technology takes know-how and skilled workers to execute properly. Both can be recovered and scaled back up if the will is there. And time -- ten or twenty years of persistent and intelligent effort should be plenty to MAGA :)

1. https://www.youtube.com/embed/pW-SOdj4Kkk

2. http://johnsalvatier.org/blog/2017/reality-has-a-surprising-...

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imbusy111 ◴[15 Apr 25 14:14 UTC] No.43693026[source]▶
But the important question is - is it worth it? Should we be doing something more valuable instead?
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robertlagrant ◴[15 Apr 25 14:25 UTC] No.43693221[source]▶
> But the important question is - is it worth it? Should we be doing something more valuable instead?

It's hard to quantify. E.g. the CHIPS act is a strategic thing in case TSMC is disrupted for some reason. How valuable is insurance? How much useful work (and skill) do you ship overseas in exchange for promissory notes[0]?

[0] https://www.grumpy-economist.com/p/tariffs-saving-and-invest...

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1. runeks ◴[23 Apr 25 09:36 UTC] No.43770212[source]▶
> E.g. the CHIPS act is a strategic thing in case TSMC is disrupted for some reason. How valuable is insurance?

What do you think the odds are that the CHIPS act will make the US capable of building TSMC-level chips?

Calculating the value of an insurance isn't complex. First, you calculate (1) the cost of the insurance, then (2) a rough idea of the probability that you'll need it, and (3) the cost of the insured-against-event occurring.

The problem here is that no one in their right mind believes the CHIPS act will make the US capable of producing chips on par with those of TSMC, so it's not actually an insurance. More like a political show — see, we doing something!