←back to thread

1525 points saeedesmaili | 1 comments | | HN request time: 0.243s | source
Show context
cjs_ac ◴[] No.43652999[source]
For any given thing or category of thing, a tiny minority of the human population will be enthusiasts of that thing, but those enthusiasts will have an outsize effect in determining everyone else's taste for that thing. For example, very few people have any real interest in driving a car at 200 MPH, but Ferraris, Lamborghinis and Porsches are widely understood as desirable cars, because the people who are into cars like those marques.

If you're designing a consumer-oriented web service like Netflix or Spotify or Instagram, you will probably add in some user analytics service, and use the insights from that analysis to inform future development. However, that analysis will aggregate its results over all your users, and won't pick out the enthusiasts, who will shape discourse and public opinion about your service. Consequently, your results will be dominated by people who don't really have an opinion, and just take whatever they're given.

Think about web browsers. The first popular browser was Netscape Navigator; then, Internet Explorer came onto the scene. Mozilla Firefox clawed back a fair chunk of market share, and then Google Chrome came along and ate everyone's lunch. In all of these changes, most of the userbase didn't really care what browser they were using: the change was driven by enthusiasts recommending the latest and greatest to their less-technically-inclined friends and family.

So if you develop your product by following your analytics, you'll inevitably converge on something that just shoves content into the faces of an indiscriminating userbase, because that's what the median user of any given service wants. (This isn't to say that most people are tasteless blobs; I think everyone is a connoisseur of something, it's just that for any given individual, that something probably isn't your product.) But who knows - maybe that really is the most profitable way to run a tech business.

replies(43): >>43653102 #>>43653133 #>>43653161 #>>43653213 #>>43653214 #>>43653232 #>>43653255 #>>43653258 #>>43653326 #>>43653448 #>>43653455 #>>43653565 #>>43653604 #>>43653636 #>>43653811 #>>43653827 #>>43653845 #>>43654022 #>>43654156 #>>43654245 #>>43654301 #>>43654312 #>>43654338 #>>43654357 #>>43654677 #>>43654723 #>>43655344 #>>43655627 #>>43655701 #>>43655913 #>>43656046 #>>43656072 #>>43656178 #>>43656340 #>>43656803 #>>43657011 #>>43657050 #>>43657261 #>>43657715 #>>43663848 #>>43664249 #>>43668575 #>>43680835 #
_kush ◴[] No.43653604[source]
This is the cycle I keep seeing:

Most great products start out for enthusiasts and often by enthusiasts. They’re opinionated, sharp, sometimes rough, but exciting.

Then VC funding comes in, and the product has to appeal to a broader audience. Things get smoothed out and the metrics rule decisions.

Eventually, the original enthusiasts feel left out. The product’s no longer for them.

So a new product comes out, started again by enthusiasts for enthusiasts. And the cycle repeats - unless someone chooses to grow slowly and sustainably, without raising, and stays focused on the niche.

replies(12): >>43653714 #>>43653888 #>>43654029 #>>43654064 #>>43654159 #>>43654190 #>>43654985 #>>43654993 #>>43655101 #>>43657848 #>>43658227 #>>43663660 #
bluGill ◴[] No.43653714[source]
Can can git rich by growing slowly in many cases - but it will be a long hard road. You could instead sell out today and get rich instantly.

If you start the slow growth path at 30 and retire at 65 you will overall make more money from that thing vs someone who sells out at 35. There are some catches though. The person who sells out can go on to the next thing which in sum total may be more sell out enough to make far more over their lifetime, while the slow growth plan you are stuck. The slow growth is over very slow at first, you often spend 10 years making far less than someone who is "working for the man", then 15 more years more or less even, and only then start making good money. There is no guarantee that you will be successful, some people spend their entire life making less than they could "working for the man"; others go bankrupt when a new VC competitor suddenly gets better by enough to take your customers.

There is no right answer. VC money sometimes is the best answer - but many people who reaching for VC money when their better long term answer would be to grow slow.

replies(5): >>43653833 #>>43653835 #>>43654189 #>>43657680 #>>43663617 #
BrenBarn ◴[] No.43657680[source]
I'm hard-pressed to believe that there is any situation where VC money is the best answer. It may be the best answer for the person taking the VC cashout, but not the best answer for our world as a whole.
replies(1): >>43768060 #
1. ◴[] No.43768060[source]