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92 points jxmorris12 | 1 comments | | HN request time: 0.217s | source
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mcphage ◴[] No.43763949[source]
I don't think you need anything fancy to tackle the "surprise examination" or "unexpected hanging" paradox. This is my take on it, at least:

> The teacher says one day he'll give a quiz and it will be a surprise. So the kids think "well, it can't be on the last day then—we'd know it was coming." And then they think "well, so it can't be on the day before the last day, either!—we'd know it was coming." And so on... and they convince themselves it can't happen at all.

> But then the teacher gives it the very next day, and they're completely surprised.

The students convince themselves that it can't happen at all... and that's well and good, but once they admit that as an option, they have to include that in their argument—and if they do so, their entire argument falls apart immediate.

Consider the first time through: "It can't be on the last day, because we'd know it was coming, and so couldn't be a surprise." Fine.

Now compare the second time through: "If we get to the last day, then either it will be on that day, or it won't happen at all. We don't know which, so if it did happen on that day, it would count as a surprise." Now you can't exclude any day, the whole structure of the argument fell apart.

Basically, they start with a bunch of premises, arrive at a contradiction, and conclude some new possibility. But if you stop there, you just end up with a contradiction and can't conclude anything.

So you need to restart your argument, with your new possibility as one of the premises. And now you don't get to a contradiction at all.

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ogogmad ◴[] No.43764773[source]
> The students convince themselves that it can't happen at all... and that's well and good, but once they admit that as an option, they have to include that in their argument—and if they do so, their entire argument falls apart immediate.

Your critical thinking is bad. The first paradox happens when the prisoner concludes that the judge lied, using a rational deduction. A second paradox happens when it transpires the judge told the truth.

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1. mcphage ◴[] No.43766890[source]
The prisoner concludes that the judge’s instructions were impossible, which is true. Their conclusion was that there’s an additional possibility: that they don’t get hung at all. Which is also true. Their mistake is believing that this new possibility will come to pass, instead of realizing that the new possibility means that the judge’s instructions aren’t impossible after all.

So in the end, the judge was telling the truth, and the prisoner was mistaken, and then dead.