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92 points jxmorris12 | 5 comments | | HN request time: 0s | source
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mcphage ◴[] No.43763949[source]
I don't think you need anything fancy to tackle the "surprise examination" or "unexpected hanging" paradox. This is my take on it, at least:

> The teacher says one day he'll give a quiz and it will be a surprise. So the kids think "well, it can't be on the last day then—we'd know it was coming." And then they think "well, so it can't be on the day before the last day, either!—we'd know it was coming." And so on... and they convince themselves it can't happen at all.

> But then the teacher gives it the very next day, and they're completely surprised.

The students convince themselves that it can't happen at all... and that's well and good, but once they admit that as an option, they have to include that in their argument—and if they do so, their entire argument falls apart immediate.

Consider the first time through: "It can't be on the last day, because we'd know it was coming, and so couldn't be a surprise." Fine.

Now compare the second time through: "If we get to the last day, then either it will be on that day, or it won't happen at all. We don't know which, so if it did happen on that day, it would count as a surprise." Now you can't exclude any day, the whole structure of the argument fell apart.

Basically, they start with a bunch of premises, arrive at a contradiction, and conclude some new possibility. But if you stop there, you just end up with a contradiction and can't conclude anything.

So you need to restart your argument, with your new possibility as one of the premises. And now you don't get to a contradiction at all.

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munchler ◴[] No.43765800[source]
> So you need to restart your argument, with your new possibility as one of the premises. And now you don't get to a contradiction at all.

It’s amusing that you stopped here without giving an actual solution. Please do tell us, which day is the test on?

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1. mcphage ◴[] No.43766866[source]
It could be on any day—even the last—and would be a surprise.
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2. munchler ◴[] No.43767297[source]
Really? Kids show up on the last day and know with certainty that the test is coming that day.
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3. mcphage ◴[] No.43767429[source]
Not if they consider “we won’t have the test at all” as a possibility.
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4. munchler ◴[] No.43768343{3}[source]
What if the teacher writes the test day on a piece of paper at the beginning of the week and hides it in his desk? That way "we won't have the test at all" is no longer a possibility.
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5. mcphage ◴[] No.43771780{4}[source]
I think that gets you back to impossible instructions—if the teacher had written "Friday", then on Friday the students wouldn't be surprised by the test on Friday. I guess, unless the students think it's possible the teacher left it blank or wrote "No Test This Week" or something on it?