Jagged AGI: o3, Gemini 2.5, and everything after

It's not AGI because it still doesn't understand anything. It can only tell you things that can be found on the internet. These "jagged" results expose the truth that these models have near 0 intelligence.

It is not a simple matter of patching the rough edges. We are fundamentally not using an architecture that is capable of intelligence.

Personally the first time I tried deep research on a real topic it was disastrously incorrect on a key point.

Is one of your personal requirements for AGI "never makes a mistake?"

I think determinism is an important element. You can ask the same LLM the same question repeatedly and get different answers - and not just different ways of stating the same answer, very different answers.

If you ask an intelligent being the same question they may occasionally change the precise words they use but their answer will be the same over and over.

That's because "intelligent beings" have memory. If you ask an LLM the same question within the same chat session you'll get a consistent answer about it.

I disagree. If you were to take a snapshot of someone's knowledge and memory such that you could restore to it over and over, that person would give the same answer to the question. The same is not true for an LLM.

Heck, I can't even get LLMs to be consistent about *their own capabilities*.

Bias disclaimer: I work at Google, but not on Gemini. If I ask Gemini to produce an SVG file, it will sometimes do so and sometimes say "sorry, I can't, I can only produce raster images". I cannot deterministically produce either behavior - it truly seems to vary randomly.