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AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu

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174 points Philpax | 1 comments | 17 Apr 25 16:42 UTC | HN request time: 0.199s | source
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yibg ◴[17 Apr 25 20:51 UTC] No.43722091[source]▶
Might as well be 10 - 1000 years. Reality is no one knows how long it'll take to get to AGI, because:

1) No one knows what exactly makes humans "intelligent" and therefore 2) No one knows what it would take to achieve AGI

Go back through history and AI / AGI has been a couple of decades away for several decades now.

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timewizard ◴[17 Apr 25 21:12 UTC] No.43722264[source]▶
That we don't have a single unified explanation doesn't mean that we don't have very good hints, or that we don't have very good understandings of specific components.

Aside from that the measure really, to me, has to be power efficiency. If you're boiling oceans to make all this work then you've not achieved anything worth having.

From my calculations the human brain runs on about 400 calories a day. That's an absurdly small amount of energy. This hints at the direction these technologies must move in to be truly competitive with humans.

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1. HDThoreaun ◴[18 Apr 25 14:52 UTC] No.43728625[source]▶
We are very good at generating energy. Even if AI is an order of magnitude less energy efficient an AI person equivalent would use ~ 4 kilowatt hours/day. At current rates thats like $1. Hardly the limiting factor here I think